2 Comments
"I won't give it much credibility." Khaiyum said he would accept and give credibility to an independent group like the Multinational Observer Group (MOG), which had said in a press briefing yesterday that the election represented the will of the Fijian people. "They did not find anomalies that would have in any way affected the outcome or the credibility of the election" When it suits his agenda he cites MOG Report but in 2012 he was citing EU Report to justify the ousting of the Qarase government in 2006: Elections Minister Aiyaz Sayed-Khaiyum refuses to be drawn into the opposition parties' claims the election is not free and fair saying he "won't give it much credibility." He said one of the party executives had only a day before praised the process only to change her tune a day later - signing a joint statement with other opposition party leaders saying otherwise. Sayed-Khaiyum also questioned the timing of the statement saying it could have stemmed from election results favouring the FijiFirst party to form government. "It is very interesting that they are making these kinds of claims after the count indicates FijiFirst is going to win government," Sayed-Khaiyum said. "They had all the time. when they found those anomalies they should have brought those to the attention of the election officials immediately. "FijiFirst polling agents also had their concerns during the process and followed it up in writing with the election officials and it was rectified. "There were also observer groups these parties could have gone to. "I won't give it much credibility." He said he would accept and give credibility to an independent group like the Multinational Observer Group (MOG), which had said in a press briefing yesterday that the election represented the will of the Fijian people. "They did not find anomalies that would have in any way affected the outcome or the credibility of the election," Sayed-Khaiyum said. Read more at: http://fijilive.com/news/2014/09/no-credibility-in-party-claims-sayed-khaiyum/59041.Fijilive
Copyright 2014 © Fijilive.com
"Such large swings themselves are not unheard of in genuinely fair votes. But the way the voting percentages changed - i.e. they continued at a constant clip towards those marks around or from the middle third of the vote count, is odd from a statistical point of view. If the count was truly a "closed system" that is. In other words, if the vote outcome was truly "set in stone" at the end of the voting day, and before the counting started, the initial percentages should have started off much nearer to the final outcomes." "The voting patterns were also highly discordant with FFP’s candidate-fielding experience. Just a couple of weeks before nominations closed, Bainimarama had to order his Cabinet and his district officers to stand for FFP. The clear implication is that they had not attracted any (or enough) high quality candidates from their public canvassing process, themselves. So to go from struggling to even field competent candidates, to “romping in” an election victory with 60% of the public vote, is a huge turnaround in fortunes which is very difficult to explain. Especially when considered in the light of the “odd” changes in voting percentages over the counting stages. And double-especially when only a relatively small crowd is celebrating the win at the FFP “victory tent”. I tell you, if my party won, I would absolutely have taken some time off work to at least go down and visit them." BY VICTOR LAL Fijileaks Opinion Columnist 1. The Voter Turnout Percentage (2014 election) is unusual because no party paid transport buses were allowed on polling day. If you have massive free public transport efforts put in by many different parties over a week, and compare that to a One-Day Vote where people have to get themselves to their nearest polling station, then its very hard to believe that the 2nd could produce a better turnout than the first. 2. The changing vote percentages throughout the vote count were also unusual. Not the fact that they changed. It was the way they changed. Normally any vote - particularly a one-day vote inside a 3-day campaigning blackout - will just be a "snap-shot" of the "Will of the People". In other words, the result of the vote is "set" at the end of the voting period, but it is just not known yet. What makes that result known is of course the final count. However before that final figure arrives, the progressive count will give some approximation of what the final result will be. That is why many good pollsters can accurately predict a final election result after just 5% of the vote count is known. Because you should be able to see the trends, and then just accurately extrapolate those over the whole vote. Which is what they do. This happens all over the democratic world because statistical principles work all over the entire world. Most importantly, these principles work because they function in the "closed system" of the end of the vote. In other words, whatever influences that existed at the time of the vote or campaign blackout, are set in stone by the time the vote starts. So they can be "detected" early in the vote count, as well as late in it. Together, the "closed influences" and the statistical trends mean that the initial count trends will approach the final count results, as a "decelerating" asymptote. Or as a decreasing oscillation. Around or towards the final vote percentage figure, I mean. So in statistical practice, if one party say got 55% of the vote as its "set" result", that might show up as 49% or 60% in the early polling. But that initial figure will "refine" itself towards, or approach, the "set" result as the count proceeds, in a decelerating "curve". And because statistical forecasting techniques will be in an environment of "closed voting influences", that will allow pollsters to accurately predict past those early approximation "errors", to confidently estimate the final figure. The key point being as the count proceeds, it becomes more precise. In other words, it becomes a more accurate reflection of the "final result". Which is why the progressive voting percentage behaves like a "decelerating asymptote", or a decreasing oscillation. Because it too, is "getting more accurate". And as it does, the changes in the percentage get smaller because of that increasing accuracy. So whilst a winning party can be expected to “pull away” from the others in terms of total votes, that will not happen with their voting percentage, which will become increasingly stable and predictable as the count proceeds. Consider this in the light of the Fiji Election vote count where it seems like the votes for the respective parties appeared to "accelerate" away from their initial polling percentages. FFP was perceptibly below 50% at the start, while SODELPA was easily above 40%. But by the end, FFP had accelerated to 60% whilst SODELPA accelerated downwards below 30%. Such large swings themselves are not unheard of in genuinely fair votes. But the way the voting percentages changed - i.e. they continued at a constant clip towards those marks around or from the middle third of the vote count, is odd from a statistical point of view. If the count was truly a "closed system" that is. In other words, if the vote outcome was truly "set in stone" at the end of the voting day, and before the counting started, the initial percentages should have started off much nearer to the final outcomes. And the statistical approach to those outcomes as the count proceeded, should have been decelerating. Not continually increasing at a constant rate through the last 2/3rds of the count. This suggests that the system was not closed, and that “new influences” were being introduced into it which did not allow the voting percentages to stabilise. It would be interesting to see if the same “voting percentage instability” pattern held with the smaller parties vote counts, too. Although I cannot state from memory if it did. Of course, shift in voting percentages could all come down to the rural-urban shift in the voting count from the pre-polling and postal votes, over to the urban centres. But SODELPA was stronger in the urban areas as that is where they concentrated their pocket meeting campaigning. So their apparent drop in support in the urban count was counter-intuitive. Unless it could be explained by all the soldiers marching around Fiji in full uniform on the weekend before the vote. 3. These voting patterns were also highly odd in terms of the party campaigning experience on the ground - at least in the Lami area. Towards the end of the campaign period, FFP could barely get anyone to even attend their pocket meetings in and around Lami. And when they (FFP) had their big campaign meetings in Suva and Nausori, they had to do it as part of a “Family Fun Day” outreach with plenty of free giveaways to attract attendance. Even then, they didn’t get notably more attendants than SODELPA's purely political “big gatherings”. 4. In previous elections, we always had voter exit polls from which to gauge our party performance on election day. And more importantly, to be able to compare with the final vote counts when these came out. Exit polls were not available this time because of regime election decree rules. So the next best thing is just straw polls from peoples’ personal experiences. As one analyst put it: "I have never been part of an election previously where nobody I knew personally was going to vote for a party, and that party did well. Even in the past, although I thought my party was going to do well, I still personally knew people who I knew were going to vote for one of our opponents. This is the first time ever in my experience where nobody I knew personally was going to vote for the eventual winner, whilst almost everyone I don’t know must have voted for them. Surreal much." 5. The voting patterns were also highly discordant with FFP’s candidate-fielding experience. Just a couple of weeks before nominations closed, Bainimarama had to order his Cabinet and his district officers to stand for FFP. The clear implication is that they had not attracted any (or enough) high quality candidates from their public canvassing process, themselves. So to go from struggling to even field competent candidates, to “romping in” an election victory with 60% of the public vote, is a huge turnaround in fortunes which is very difficult to explain. Especially when considered in the light of the “odd” changes in voting percentages over the counting stages. And double-especially when only a relatively small crowd is celebrating the win at the FFP “victory tent”. I tell you, if my party won, I would absolutely have taken some time off work to at least go down and visit them. 6. By some counts, voter turnout yesterday was 97%+. By other counts, there were actually more ballots counted than registered voters. Obviously the 2nd scenario is a big problem. But even the first is not without issues. The first of which is that all around the world in democratic experience, high turnouts have always been associated with either: 1. A close race, or 2. A big vote for "Change" (as in, change of government). Fiji must be a very special case though, because our big turnout produced neither of those two. 'We will not accept the outcome of these general elections based on the evidence available which points to a co-ordinated and systematic effort to defraud the citizens of Fiji of a free and fair election.'
Senior officers fear the humiliating spectacle of Golan soldiers, initially commanded by Qiliho, and recently submissively sitting cross-legged under scorching Arab sun, has emboldened VOTERS NOT TO BE AFRAID of Fijian soldiers who have been propping up the Bainimarama regime for the last EIGHT long oppressive years Aiyaz Khaiyum and FijiFirst (Theft) Party put up tent in
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MORALLY UNSCRUPULOUS OPPORTUNIST: |
Meanwhile, BLACK OUT - WHAT BLACK OUT
FijiFirst Party & other political parties still breaching Election Decree:
URGENT
September 15, 2014
The Chairperson
Fijian Electoral Commission
Fijian Elections Office
Toorak
SUVA
ATTN: MR CHEN BUNN YOUNG
Dear Sir
BREACH OF SECTION 63 OF ELECTORAL DECREE
The National Federation Party urges you to direct your immediate attention to breaches of Section 63 of the Electoral Decree 2014 during the campaign blackout period that came into force at 7.30am today.
Fiji First, SODELPA, Fiji Labour Party and People’s Democratic Party are breaching the Decree in the manner namely:-
1. There are taxis still carrying Fiji First windscreen stickers. They have been sighted in Suva and in Nadi.
2. Banners of Fiji First have been sighted in Nausori, Wainibuku and Sigatoka at 1pm today
3. District Offices of Fiji First including the head office in Brown Street are prominently displaying Fiji First colours and their signboards Fiji First colours have not been removed or covered at 1.30pm today.
4. Fiji First Facebook page and website are still online and not disabled or de-activated at 1.35pm today.
5. Fiji Labour Party website and Facebook page are still online and not disabled or de-activated at 1.36pm today.
6. SODELA website and Facebook pages are still online and not disabled or de-activated at 1.37pm today.
7. People’s Democratic Party website and Facebook pages are still online and not disabled or de-activated at 1.38pm today.
These are sufficient breaches for the Commission to take action. We are sure that candidates of the above parties have also not de-activated their social media sites. But the above are breaches committed by the individual Parties.
Section 63(2) of the Electoral Decree clearly prohibits this. This was also highlighted in the Electoral Commission’s press release dated 12th September. The press release also pointed that it was an offence for failure to comply with this provision.
We now urge you to enforce Section 63 of the Decree and penalties for the breaches.
Yours sincerely
Kamal Iyer
General Secretary
c.c. 1. Supervisor of Elections
2. Commissioner of Police
3. FICAC
4. Multinational Observer Group
TO
Commander Mosese Tikoitoga Fisher
We the people of Fiji thank you sincerely for your assurance that the Republic of Fiji Military Forces will look after the best interest of all citizens in Fiji. We thank you for your word given that the RFMF will accept the outcome of the National Elections and work with the government elected by the people.
We know that you haven’t had the best of times since getting into the position of Commander, but so far we have all been pleased to see a level headed man of integrity that has shown real leadership. Your cool composure whilst the 45 sons of Fiji were held captive in the Golan Heights showed you as an inspirational, caring and persistent leader. You were calm and realized the importance of allaying the fears of all the people of Fiji whose hearts were in tangles the moment we heard of the capture of our brave sons.
The comments by the Sodelpa Party Leader Ro Teimumu Kepa that you were a great Commander on straight Talk debate between herself and PM Frank Bainimarama yesterday is an indication that the people of Fiji who have been praying for Fiji this past 7.5 years have had their prayers answered with your appointment as a respectable and trusted Commander.
Thank you for the Force March of your soldiers tomorrow ( Tuesday the 16th of September, 2014) around Suva where we understand they will have guns on display, and people like Frank Bainimarama and other goons like him will be informed that YOU ARE THE COMMANDER and that Frank’s statements that he wishes to put back on the uniform of the Commander is just wishful thinking on his part.
We pray that you will remain strong and continue to show the wisdom and integrity that you have displayed so far.
We are sure you will be assured of the words of Ro Teimumu that is no doubt shared by the other political parties that ‘soldiers just follow orders’ and that the blame for the 2006 coup is simply on the person that was at the Head of the Military and that gave the command or the order for the coup to be carried out.
To the people of Fiji, be assured that our soldiers are with us! Their march tomorrow must be welcomed and is a welcome sign of solidarity in a clear and transparent electoral process that respects the wishes of the people. May God Bless Fiji.
Commander Mosese Tikoitoga Fisher
We the people of Fiji thank you sincerely for your assurance that the Republic of Fiji Military Forces will look after the best interest of all citizens in Fiji. We thank you for your word given that the RFMF will accept the outcome of the National Elections and work with the government elected by the people.
We know that you haven’t had the best of times since getting into the position of Commander, but so far we have all been pleased to see a level headed man of integrity that has shown real leadership. Your cool composure whilst the 45 sons of Fiji were held captive in the Golan Heights showed you as an inspirational, caring and persistent leader. You were calm and realized the importance of allaying the fears of all the people of Fiji whose hearts were in tangles the moment we heard of the capture of our brave sons.
The comments by the Sodelpa Party Leader Ro Teimumu Kepa that you were a great Commander on straight Talk debate between herself and PM Frank Bainimarama yesterday is an indication that the people of Fiji who have been praying for Fiji this past 7.5 years have had their prayers answered with your appointment as a respectable and trusted Commander.
Thank you for the Force March of your soldiers tomorrow ( Tuesday the 16th of September, 2014) around Suva where we understand they will have guns on display, and people like Frank Bainimarama and other goons like him will be informed that YOU ARE THE COMMANDER and that Frank’s statements that he wishes to put back on the uniform of the Commander is just wishful thinking on his part.
We pray that you will remain strong and continue to show the wisdom and integrity that you have displayed so far.
We are sure you will be assured of the words of Ro Teimumu that is no doubt shared by the other political parties that ‘soldiers just follow orders’ and that the blame for the 2006 coup is simply on the person that was at the Head of the Military and that gave the command or the order for the coup to be carried out.
To the people of Fiji, be assured that our soldiers are with us! Their march tomorrow must be welcomed and is a welcome sign of solidarity in a clear and transparent electoral process that respects the wishes of the people. May God Bless Fiji.
Talkshow host Narayan right to be cautious in not upsetting Bainimarama, only yesterday he tried to slap NZ TV reporter; now Russian sources reveal when Bainimarama visited Moscow he flew into a drunken rage and a psychiatrist was brought in to sedate him in his Golden Ring Hotel room
Sunday, September 14, 2014
Bainimarama is Frankly a monster
By Marc Edge
Nothing epitomizes the past eight years of media repression in Fiji better than the video of dictator Frank Bainimarama slapping a woman TV journalist in the face last week. It captures not only the contempt with which Bainimarama has treated the press, but also the brutality with which he has treated people, including and especially women. Now some of Bainimarama’s staunchest supporters are re-thinking whether he would make a fit leader for a democratic Fiji, as should all citizens in advance of Wednesday’s poll.
3News reporter Amanda Gillies was in Suva from New Zealand to cover the election campaign and approached Bainimarama at a rally. “Can you promise there won’t be another coup,” she asked the obviously irritated dictator. “Can you just move away from me?” replied Bainimarama, who told Gillies he didn’t want to discuss the subject. He first pushed away her microphone, then began waving his hand in her face. “I will move away,” promised Gillies, who courageously refused to be intimidated and persisted as any good journalist should. “But I just want to know if you . . .” She couldn’t finish her sentence because Bainimarama slapped her in the face, causing her to drop her microphone at the 12-second mark of this clip.
The video, which has been making the rounds on Facebook, has elicited a shocked response from viewers. Bainimarama has been rumored for years to have participated in the beating of women who were arrested for advocating democracy in the wake of his 2006 coup, including one who was pregnant. He also famously condoned the beating of escaped prisoners last year after a video of the atrocity was posted to the Internet. But to watch as the prime minister gives the back of his hand to a woman leads to the inescapable conclusion that this thug is simply not fit for leadership.
As campaigning culminates, even some of Bainimarama's longest-serving sycophants are deserting his sinking ship. Crosbie Walsh posted a sheepish entry which he labelled a “Personal Confession” on his blog yesterday. “What if I’m wrong,” worried Croz. When I started this blog in May 2007 it was to offset the distorted reporting of NZ journalist Michael Field, and I was writing mainly for an overseas audience. . . . Since then, as I read about what the Bainimarama government was doing and talked to a wide range of people in Fiji, my position gradually changed. . . . To make matters worse, a number of government-initiated judicial actions seemed personally charged and vindictive. And its failure to have public audits and reveal salaries laid it wide open to further charges by the Opposition.
If even crazy old Croz is questioning his beloved dictator, then you know Bainimarama is going down. “He’s a military man and he definitely has a very short fuse,” admitted Croz. “Parliament will be a very different environment. If FijFirst wins and Bainimarama forms Fiji’s next government, his power will be limited by law.” Bainimarama is normally a friendly person who enjoys being with people. I am optimistic that this positive side of his personality will be used to good effect in Parliament, and the “short fuse” kept in check.
This incident is only the latest in a long line of erratic and even violent behavior by Fiji's self-appointed prime minister. Former U.S. ambassador Larry Dinger outlined a litany of abuse in cables made public in 2011 by Wikileaks. Dinger quipped that “a psychiatrist would have a field day with Bainimarama,” reported the Sydney Morning Herald. The US embassy reports also document cases of rape and sexual assault by military personnel, including at least one instance of a group of detainees forced to engage in group sexual acts. In another case a prominent human rights activist was “felt up” by a senior military officer and was “warned she would receive worse treatment unless she stopped her activities.”
Then, of course, there is Bainimarama’s shameful treatment of Father Kevin Barr, a former supporter who made the mistake of joking in a letter to the editor last year that, given the loans received from that country, Fiji should consider incorporating the flag of China into its flag instead of the Union Jack. The Catholic priest recounted then receiving a telephone call from an angry Bainimarama, who called him “a fucked up priest.” Then came the text messages. “Fuck U arsehole, . . Start saying your goodbyes Father Kevin James Barr, Australian national, work permit as a missionary, expiry date for permit 31/12/2013. . . Go and be a missionary in China.”
Tales of Bainimarama’s out-of-control drinking have long circulated around Suva, including one recent incident in which he is said to have publicly soiled himself. It would be understandable if the citizens of Fiji decided on Wednesday that such an idiot, thug and monster is not fit to lead their country. Source: http://fijimediawars.blogspot.co.nz/2014/09/bainimarama-is-frankly-monster.html
Bainimarama is Frankly a monster
By Marc Edge
Nothing epitomizes the past eight years of media repression in Fiji better than the video of dictator Frank Bainimarama slapping a woman TV journalist in the face last week. It captures not only the contempt with which Bainimarama has treated the press, but also the brutality with which he has treated people, including and especially women. Now some of Bainimarama’s staunchest supporters are re-thinking whether he would make a fit leader for a democratic Fiji, as should all citizens in advance of Wednesday’s poll.
3News reporter Amanda Gillies was in Suva from New Zealand to cover the election campaign and approached Bainimarama at a rally. “Can you promise there won’t be another coup,” she asked the obviously irritated dictator. “Can you just move away from me?” replied Bainimarama, who told Gillies he didn’t want to discuss the subject. He first pushed away her microphone, then began waving his hand in her face. “I will move away,” promised Gillies, who courageously refused to be intimidated and persisted as any good journalist should. “But I just want to know if you . . .” She couldn’t finish her sentence because Bainimarama slapped her in the face, causing her to drop her microphone at the 12-second mark of this clip.
The video, which has been making the rounds on Facebook, has elicited a shocked response from viewers. Bainimarama has been rumored for years to have participated in the beating of women who were arrested for advocating democracy in the wake of his 2006 coup, including one who was pregnant. He also famously condoned the beating of escaped prisoners last year after a video of the atrocity was posted to the Internet. But to watch as the prime minister gives the back of his hand to a woman leads to the inescapable conclusion that this thug is simply not fit for leadership.
As campaigning culminates, even some of Bainimarama's longest-serving sycophants are deserting his sinking ship. Crosbie Walsh posted a sheepish entry which he labelled a “Personal Confession” on his blog yesterday. “What if I’m wrong,” worried Croz. When I started this blog in May 2007 it was to offset the distorted reporting of NZ journalist Michael Field, and I was writing mainly for an overseas audience. . . . Since then, as I read about what the Bainimarama government was doing and talked to a wide range of people in Fiji, my position gradually changed. . . . To make matters worse, a number of government-initiated judicial actions seemed personally charged and vindictive. And its failure to have public audits and reveal salaries laid it wide open to further charges by the Opposition.
If even crazy old Croz is questioning his beloved dictator, then you know Bainimarama is going down. “He’s a military man and he definitely has a very short fuse,” admitted Croz. “Parliament will be a very different environment. If FijFirst wins and Bainimarama forms Fiji’s next government, his power will be limited by law.” Bainimarama is normally a friendly person who enjoys being with people. I am optimistic that this positive side of his personality will be used to good effect in Parliament, and the “short fuse” kept in check.
This incident is only the latest in a long line of erratic and even violent behavior by Fiji's self-appointed prime minister. Former U.S. ambassador Larry Dinger outlined a litany of abuse in cables made public in 2011 by Wikileaks. Dinger quipped that “a psychiatrist would have a field day with Bainimarama,” reported the Sydney Morning Herald. The US embassy reports also document cases of rape and sexual assault by military personnel, including at least one instance of a group of detainees forced to engage in group sexual acts. In another case a prominent human rights activist was “felt up” by a senior military officer and was “warned she would receive worse treatment unless she stopped her activities.”
Then, of course, there is Bainimarama’s shameful treatment of Father Kevin Barr, a former supporter who made the mistake of joking in a letter to the editor last year that, given the loans received from that country, Fiji should consider incorporating the flag of China into its flag instead of the Union Jack. The Catholic priest recounted then receiving a telephone call from an angry Bainimarama, who called him “a fucked up priest.” Then came the text messages. “Fuck U arsehole, . . Start saying your goodbyes Father Kevin James Barr, Australian national, work permit as a missionary, expiry date for permit 31/12/2013. . . Go and be a missionary in China.”
Tales of Bainimarama’s out-of-control drinking have long circulated around Suva, including one recent incident in which he is said to have publicly soiled himself. It would be understandable if the citizens of Fiji decided on Wednesday that such an idiot, thug and monster is not fit to lead their country. Source: http://fijimediawars.blogspot.co.nz/2014/09/bainimarama-is-frankly-monster.html
editor@fijileaks.com
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