A public debate has emerged following characterisation of the recent Dialogue Fiji economic forum as a "talkfest", with Dialogue Fiji Executive Director Nilesh Lal responding to defend the event's purpose, scope and outcomes.
In an email to FijiLeaks, Lal argued that some of the criticism directed at the two-day economic dialogue was based on an incomplete understanding of the event. He suggested that a number of commentators appeared to have formed their views after watching only a single livestreamed panel discussion rather than considering the full programme.
According to Lal, the forum consisted of considerably more than the publicly broadcast panel sessions. He noted that the event included an IMF keynote address, three major panel discussions, extensive audience engagement and structured breakout group sessions involving a wide range of stakeholders.
Those stakeholders included government representatives, opposition politicians, economists, business leaders, development partners, academics, civil society organisations and members of the public.
Lal also pointed out that Dialogue Fiji conducted a nationwide public priorities survey involving 1,266 respondents before the event. The survey sought public views on the issues that should be prioritised in the 2026-2027 National Budget and was used to help shape discussions during the forum.
In his response, Lal rejected suggestions that key national issues had been ignored. He maintained that topics such as labour shortages, outward migration, workforce development, healthcare, infrastructure, productivity, public debt, fiscal sustainability and long-term economic growth were discussed extensively throughout both the panel discussions and breakout sessions.
He further argued that the purpose of the dialogue was not necessarily to produce immediate solutions to every challenge facing Fiji, but rather to create a platform for evidence-based discussion and engagement among stakeholders with differing perspectives.
Lal also cited the level of public interest in the event, noting that registrations exceeded venue capacity, the livestream attracted thousands of viewers, and the discussions generated extensive media coverage and continuing public debate. He pointed to comments by the Prime Minister indicating that concerns raised during the dialogue had helped inform preparations for the forthcoming national budget.
The exchange highlights a broader question about the role of national policy forums in Fiji.
Supporters of such dialogues argue that they provide an important opportunity for policymakers, experts, businesses and citizens to discuss national challenges, exchange ideas and develop recommendations that can inform future policy decisions.
Critics, however, often question whether conferences and forums translate into tangible outcomes, particularly when many of the issues being discussed have been identified repeatedly over a number of years.
The debate surrounding the Dialogue Fiji event therefore reflects two different perspectives. One focuses on the value of public engagement, consultation and policy discussion. The other focuses on whether such discussions ultimately lead to measurable action and implementation.
Whatever one's view of the forum itself, the continuing discussion suggests that the event has succeeded in generating public attention around some of Fiji's most pressing economic and social challenges, including the cost of living, migration, labour shortages, healthcare, public debt and economic growth.
As Fiji prepares for its next national budget, the longer-term significance of the dialogue may ultimately be judged not by the discussions that took place during the two-day event, but by whether any of the ideas and recommendations emerging from it are reflected in future government policy.
In an email to FijiLeaks, Lal argued that some of the criticism directed at the two-day economic dialogue was based on an incomplete understanding of the event. He suggested that a number of commentators appeared to have formed their views after watching only a single livestreamed panel discussion rather than considering the full programme.
According to Lal, the forum consisted of considerably more than the publicly broadcast panel sessions. He noted that the event included an IMF keynote address, three major panel discussions, extensive audience engagement and structured breakout group sessions involving a wide range of stakeholders.
Those stakeholders included government representatives, opposition politicians, economists, business leaders, development partners, academics, civil society organisations and members of the public.
Lal also pointed out that Dialogue Fiji conducted a nationwide public priorities survey involving 1,266 respondents before the event. The survey sought public views on the issues that should be prioritised in the 2026-2027 National Budget and was used to help shape discussions during the forum.
In his response, Lal rejected suggestions that key national issues had been ignored. He maintained that topics such as labour shortages, outward migration, workforce development, healthcare, infrastructure, productivity, public debt, fiscal sustainability and long-term economic growth were discussed extensively throughout both the panel discussions and breakout sessions.
He further argued that the purpose of the dialogue was not necessarily to produce immediate solutions to every challenge facing Fiji, but rather to create a platform for evidence-based discussion and engagement among stakeholders with differing perspectives.
Lal also cited the level of public interest in the event, noting that registrations exceeded venue capacity, the livestream attracted thousands of viewers, and the discussions generated extensive media coverage and continuing public debate. He pointed to comments by the Prime Minister indicating that concerns raised during the dialogue had helped inform preparations for the forthcoming national budget.
The exchange highlights a broader question about the role of national policy forums in Fiji.
Supporters of such dialogues argue that they provide an important opportunity for policymakers, experts, businesses and citizens to discuss national challenges, exchange ideas and develop recommendations that can inform future policy decisions.
Critics, however, often question whether conferences and forums translate into tangible outcomes, particularly when many of the issues being discussed have been identified repeatedly over a number of years.
The debate surrounding the Dialogue Fiji event therefore reflects two different perspectives. One focuses on the value of public engagement, consultation and policy discussion. The other focuses on whether such discussions ultimately lead to measurable action and implementation.
Whatever one's view of the forum itself, the continuing discussion suggests that the event has succeeded in generating public attention around some of Fiji's most pressing economic and social challenges, including the cost of living, migration, labour shortages, healthcare, public debt and economic growth.
As Fiji prepares for its next national budget, the longer-term significance of the dialogue may ultimately be judged not by the discussions that took place during the two-day event, but by whether any of the ideas and recommendations emerging from it are reflected in future government policy.
State of the Fijian Economy Dialogue 2026 REPORT: A Nation Confronts Its Economic Reality
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DRUNK, DISHEVELLED AND A FAIGITIVE: OXFORD STREET TENT RESIDENT ANALYSES DIALOGUE FIJI'S STATE of ECONOMY REPORT |  |
The State of the Fijian Economy Dialogue 2026, convened at the Grand Pacific Hotel in Suva on 9-10 June 2026, represented one of the most significant public forums on economic policy held in Fiji in recent years.
Bringing together government officials, opposition politicians, economists, international development institutions, business representatives, trade unions, civil society organisations, academics, journalists and members of the public, the Dialogue sought to move beyond partisan politics and focus attention on the underlying realities of the Fijian economy.
The organisers framed the event around a central proposition: Fiji has recovered from the immediate economic devastation caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, but recovery should not be mistaken for long-term economic security. The country now faces a complex combination of slowing growth, rising living costs, increasing public debt, labour shortages, outward migration, infrastructure deficits and mounting global uncertainty.
Beyond Political Rhetoric
One of the most striking features of the proceedings is the organisers' explicit attempt to separate economic analysis from political tribalism. The report repeatedly emphasises that the Dialogue was not designed to defend or attack any government. Rather, it was intended as a forum for evidence-based discussion and critical examination of economic trends affecting ordinary Fijians.
This point is important because Fiji's public discourse has often been dominated by constitutional questions, governance disputes and political rivalries. Dialogue Fiji's Executive Director, Nilesh Lal, argued that excessive attention to politics has distracted public attention from emerging economic challenges that may prove equally consequential for the country's future.
The Dialogue therefore positioned itself as an intervention in national debate: a call for Fiji to confront economic realities before they become economic crises.
A Consensus Emerging on Economic Risks
Despite the ideological diversity of the participants, the proceedings reveal a remarkable degree of consensus regarding the broad direction of Fiji's economic challenges.
Participants generally agreed that Fiji faces slowing economic growth; rising inflationary pressures; labour shortages; outward migration of skilled workers; high public debt levels; Infrastructure deficits; fiscal sustainability concerns; and structural constraints limiting productivity growth.
What differed was not necessarily the diagnosis but the emphasis placed upon particular risks and the remedies proposed.
Bringing together government officials, opposition politicians, economists, international development institutions, business representatives, trade unions, civil society organisations, academics, journalists and members of the public, the Dialogue sought to move beyond partisan politics and focus attention on the underlying realities of the Fijian economy.
The organisers framed the event around a central proposition: Fiji has recovered from the immediate economic devastation caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, but recovery should not be mistaken for long-term economic security. The country now faces a complex combination of slowing growth, rising living costs, increasing public debt, labour shortages, outward migration, infrastructure deficits and mounting global uncertainty.
Beyond Political Rhetoric
One of the most striking features of the proceedings is the organisers' explicit attempt to separate economic analysis from political tribalism. The report repeatedly emphasises that the Dialogue was not designed to defend or attack any government. Rather, it was intended as a forum for evidence-based discussion and critical examination of economic trends affecting ordinary Fijians.
This point is important because Fiji's public discourse has often been dominated by constitutional questions, governance disputes and political rivalries. Dialogue Fiji's Executive Director, Nilesh Lal, argued that excessive attention to politics has distracted public attention from emerging economic challenges that may prove equally consequential for the country's future.
The Dialogue therefore positioned itself as an intervention in national debate: a call for Fiji to confront economic realities before they become economic crises.
A Consensus Emerging on Economic Risks
Despite the ideological diversity of the participants, the proceedings reveal a remarkable degree of consensus regarding the broad direction of Fiji's economic challenges.
Participants generally agreed that Fiji faces slowing economic growth; rising inflationary pressures; labour shortages; outward migration of skilled workers; high public debt levels; Infrastructure deficits; fiscal sustainability concerns; and structural constraints limiting productivity growth.
What differed was not necessarily the diagnosis but the emphasis placed upon particular risks and the remedies proposed.
The IMF's Warning: Recovery Is Slowing
The keynote address by IMF Regional Representative Dr Giovanni Ganelli provided perhaps the most authoritative external assessment of Fiji's economic position.
The IMF acknowledged Fiji's strong post-pandemic recovery, largely driven by tourism and external demand. However, the Fund projected economic growth to slow to approximately 2.4 per cent in 2026, compared with 3.2 per cent previously, while inflation was expected to rise significantly.
The IMF identified several interconnected risks: persistent high public debt; widening external imbalances; labour shortages linked to migration; infrastructure deficiencies; governance and implementation constraints; exposure to global oil price shocks; and vulnerability to natural disasters.
Particularly noteworthy was the IMF's concern that the fiscal gains achieved since the pandemic could be reversed. The organisation argued that Fiji would need to balance immediate cost-of-living relief measures with the longer-term necessity of rebuilding fiscal buffers and reducing debt exposure.
The IMF's message was therefore one of cautious optimism: recovery remains real, but vulnerabilities remain substantial.
The keynote address by IMF Regional Representative Dr Giovanni Ganelli provided perhaps the most authoritative external assessment of Fiji's economic position.
The IMF acknowledged Fiji's strong post-pandemic recovery, largely driven by tourism and external demand. However, the Fund projected economic growth to slow to approximately 2.4 per cent in 2026, compared with 3.2 per cent previously, while inflation was expected to rise significantly.
The IMF identified several interconnected risks: persistent high public debt; widening external imbalances; labour shortages linked to migration; infrastructure deficiencies; governance and implementation constraints; exposure to global oil price shocks; and vulnerability to natural disasters.
Particularly noteworthy was the IMF's concern that the fiscal gains achieved since the pandemic could be reversed. The organisation argued that Fiji would need to balance immediate cost-of-living relief measures with the longer-term necessity of rebuilding fiscal buffers and reducing debt exposure.
The IMF's message was therefore one of cautious optimism: recovery remains real, but vulnerabilities remain substantial.
Nilesh Lal The Public Debt Debate
Perhaps the most contentious and intellectually significant contribution came from Nilesh Lal's presentation on what he described as the "debt-to-GDP illusion."
Lal challenged the common narrative that Fiji's fiscal position has substantially improved because the debt-to-GDP ratio has declined from pandemic-era highs. According to his analysis, this ratio masks a more troubling reality.
While GDP has expanded rapidly since the pandemic, public debt itself has continued to increase. Lal highlighted figures showing public debt rising from approximately $5.7 billion before the pandemic to around $11.7 billion in FY2025–26, while budget deficits remain substantial and capital expenditure has declined as a proportion of total spending.
His central argument was that debt sustainability cannot be measured solely through ratios. If debt continues to rise while productive investment declines, future generations may inherit larger debt burdens without the infrastructure and productive assets necessary to support economic growth.
This critique represents one of the Dialogue's most important contributions because it challenges the adequacy of headline fiscal indicators and encourages closer scrutiny of the quality and composition of government expenditure.
Perhaps the most contentious and intellectually significant contribution came from Nilesh Lal's presentation on what he described as the "debt-to-GDP illusion."
Lal challenged the common narrative that Fiji's fiscal position has substantially improved because the debt-to-GDP ratio has declined from pandemic-era highs. According to his analysis, this ratio masks a more troubling reality.
While GDP has expanded rapidly since the pandemic, public debt itself has continued to increase. Lal highlighted figures showing public debt rising from approximately $5.7 billion before the pandemic to around $11.7 billion in FY2025–26, while budget deficits remain substantial and capital expenditure has declined as a proportion of total spending.
His central argument was that debt sustainability cannot be measured solely through ratios. If debt continues to rise while productive investment declines, future generations may inherit larger debt burdens without the infrastructure and productive assets necessary to support economic growth.
This critique represents one of the Dialogue's most important contributions because it challenges the adequacy of headline fiscal indicators and encourages closer scrutiny of the quality and composition of government expenditure.
The World Bank's Perspective: Productivity, Not Just Recovery: Dr Mathenge argued that Fiji is unlikely to achieve its ambition of becoming a high-income economy by 2050 under current growth trajectories. To do so would require average long-term growth of approximately 5.7 per cent per year, well above current forecasts.
Dr Naomi Mathenge of the World Bank advanced a complementary but distinct argument. Her presentation focused on the difference between recovery and transformation. Fiji's tourism-led rebound, she argued, has demonstrated resilience but has not yet translated into the sustained productivity growth required for long-term prosperity.
The World Bank's analysis identified several structural concerns: excessive dependence on tourism; Insufficient job creation; low productivity in key sectors; under-utilisation of female labour; high youth disengagement from employment and education; and repeated economic shocks that undermine fiscal resilience.
Most strikingly, Dr Mathenge argued that Fiji is unlikely to achieve its ambition of becoming a high-income economy by 2050 under current growth trajectories. To do so would require average long-term growth of approximately 5.7 per cent per year, well above current forecasts.
Her proposed solution centred on productivity growth, labour market reform, increased investment, skills development, female workforce participation and stronger climate resilience.
Dr Naomi Mathenge of the World Bank advanced a complementary but distinct argument. Her presentation focused on the difference between recovery and transformation. Fiji's tourism-led rebound, she argued, has demonstrated resilience but has not yet translated into the sustained productivity growth required for long-term prosperity.
The World Bank's analysis identified several structural concerns: excessive dependence on tourism; Insufficient job creation; low productivity in key sectors; under-utilisation of female labour; high youth disengagement from employment and education; and repeated economic shocks that undermine fiscal resilience.
Most strikingly, Dr Mathenge argued that Fiji is unlikely to achieve its ambition of becoming a high-income economy by 2050 under current growth trajectories. To do so would require average long-term growth of approximately 5.7 per cent per year, well above current forecasts.
Her proposed solution centred on productivity growth, labour market reform, increased investment, skills development, female workforce participation and stronger climate resilience.
Poonam Singh Coalition Government's Position: Progress Amid Uncertainty
Coalition Government representatives accepted many of the underlying economic challenges but presented a more optimistic interpretation of Fiji's fiscal trajectory.
Poonam Singh, Acting Head of Strategic Planning, acknowledged weaker growth forecasts, rising inflation and increasing global uncertainty. She confirmed that economic growth projections had been revised downward and inflation was expected to exceed six per cent.
However, she argued that significant progress had nevertheless been made since the pandemic, particularly in reducing budget deficits and lowering debt ratios relative to GDP. Government's position was that fiscal stability has improved, even though considerable pressures remain in relation to infrastructure, wages, social services and debt servicing.
Importantly, Singh emphasised not simply the quantity of public spending but its quality. The challenge, in her view, is ensuring that expenditure generates measurable improvements in productivity, growth and service delivery.
The Dialogue's Broader Significance
The Proceedings Report demonstrates that the Dialogue was far more than a single panel discussion or public spectacle.
It included an IMF keynote address, multiple substantive panel sessions, audience engagement and breakout group deliberations aimed at generating practical policy recommendations. The event explicitly sought to expose participants to competing viewpoints rather than manufacture consensus.
The organisers emphasised that the value of the Dialogue lay not in achieving agreement on every issue but in facilitating informed public debate grounded in evidence rather than slogans.
Viewed as a whole, the State of the Fijian Economy Dialogue 2026 reflects a growing recognition that Fiji's economic future cannot be secured merely through tourism recovery or favourable macroeconomic indicators.
The central message emerging from the proceedings is that Fiji faces a transition point. The country has recovered from the immediate shock of the pandemic, but recovery alone will not deliver long-term prosperity.
Persistent debt pressures, labour shortages, outward migration, infrastructure gaps, productivity constraints and global uncertainty require policy responses extending far beyond short-term political cycles.
Whether one agrees more with the IMF, the World Bank, Dialogue Fiji or Coalition Government officials, the Dialogue succeeded in one important respect: it brought economic realities back to the centre of national discussion and underscored the need for evidence-based policymaking at a moment when Fiji's future economic trajectory remains uncertain.
Coalition Government representatives accepted many of the underlying economic challenges but presented a more optimistic interpretation of Fiji's fiscal trajectory.
Poonam Singh, Acting Head of Strategic Planning, acknowledged weaker growth forecasts, rising inflation and increasing global uncertainty. She confirmed that economic growth projections had been revised downward and inflation was expected to exceed six per cent.
However, she argued that significant progress had nevertheless been made since the pandemic, particularly in reducing budget deficits and lowering debt ratios relative to GDP. Government's position was that fiscal stability has improved, even though considerable pressures remain in relation to infrastructure, wages, social services and debt servicing.
Importantly, Singh emphasised not simply the quantity of public spending but its quality. The challenge, in her view, is ensuring that expenditure generates measurable improvements in productivity, growth and service delivery.
The Dialogue's Broader Significance
The Proceedings Report demonstrates that the Dialogue was far more than a single panel discussion or public spectacle.
It included an IMF keynote address, multiple substantive panel sessions, audience engagement and breakout group deliberations aimed at generating practical policy recommendations. The event explicitly sought to expose participants to competing viewpoints rather than manufacture consensus.
The organisers emphasised that the value of the Dialogue lay not in achieving agreement on every issue but in facilitating informed public debate grounded in evidence rather than slogans.
Viewed as a whole, the State of the Fijian Economy Dialogue 2026 reflects a growing recognition that Fiji's economic future cannot be secured merely through tourism recovery or favourable macroeconomic indicators.
The central message emerging from the proceedings is that Fiji faces a transition point. The country has recovered from the immediate shock of the pandemic, but recovery alone will not deliver long-term prosperity.
Persistent debt pressures, labour shortages, outward migration, infrastructure gaps, productivity constraints and global uncertainty require policy responses extending far beyond short-term political cycles.
Whether one agrees more with the IMF, the World Bank, Dialogue Fiji or Coalition Government officials, the Dialogue succeeded in one important respect: it brought economic realities back to the centre of national discussion and underscored the need for evidence-based policymaking at a moment when Fiji's future economic trajectory remains uncertain.
BIMAN PRASAD'S VISION 2050: PROMISES, PRIORITIES AND UNANSWERED QUESTIONS
Speaking at the recent economic dialogue, National Federation Party leader and former Finance Minister Biman Chand Prasad outlined what he described as four central priorities for Fiji's economic future: jobs, incomes, resilience, and fiscal stability.
Prasad anchored his presentation around the Coalition Government's National Development Plan and Vision 2050, arguing that Fiji had, for the first time, articulated a clear objective of achieving high-income country status by 2050. He maintained that this ambition would require substantial structural transformation rather than a continuation of existing economic policies and growth patterns.
According to Prasad, tourism will remain the backbone of the Fijian economy because of Fiji's established comparative advantages, including its geographical location, tourism infrastructure, and natural environment. However, he acknowledged that Fiji has historically struggled to diversify its economic base and argued that future growth would depend upon stronger performance in agriculture, fisheries, manufacturing, and higher-value exports.
Biman Prasad also highlighted investment priorities in infrastructure, housing, health, education, and climate resilience. Referring to ongoing collaboration with the World Bank, he pointed to plans for a new national hospital and broader health-sector reforms.
Warning of a Global Fuel Shock
A significant portion of Prasad's address focused on what he characterised as an emerging global fuel crisis.
Drawing comparisons with the 2008 oil price shock, he noted that crude oil prices reached approximately US$145 per barrel during July 2008. Adjusted for inflation, he suggested that this would be equivalent to roughly US$225 per barrel in today's terms.
Prasad recalled that Fiji experienced substantial inflationary pressures during that period, culminating in severe foreign exchange shortages and the eventual devaluation of the Fiji dollar in 2009.
He argued that the current economic challenge differs fundamentally from the COVID-19 crisis. Whereas the pandemic primarily generated unemployment and income loss, he said the present threat is centred on affordability pressures and the rising cost of living.
Defending the Coalition's Fiscal Record
Turning to public finances, Prasad acknowledged that Fiji's fiscal challenges predated both the Coalition Government and the pandemic.
He noted that economic growth had already slowed significantly before COVID-19 and that the economy subsequently contracted by approximately 17 percent during the pandemic period.
According to Prasad, when the Coalition Government assumed office in December 2022, it inherited a fragile fiscal position characterised by high debt and large deficits. He said the government's strategy has been to balance fiscal consolidation with economic growth and social protection.
Among the outcomes he attributed to Coalition policies were reduction of the budget deficit from approximately 7.2 percent in 2022 to 3.4 percent and subsequently 2.5 percent; reduction in the debt-to-GDP ratio from around 91.8 percent in mid-2022 to approximately 79 percent by 2025, and three consecutive years of revenue growth exceeding 3 percent.
Prasad argued that these indicators demonstrate meaningful progress in restoring fiscal stability, although he acknowledged that significant challenges remain.
Vat Controversy
The Deputy Prime Minister also defended the government's controversial VAT reforms.
Responding to critics, he argued that Fiji's previous multi-rate VAT structure — consisting of 0 percent, 9 percent and 15 percent rates — created opportunities for tax leakage and abuse.
According to Prasad, some businesses were charging consumers at higher VAT rates while remitting tax at lower rates, resulting in revenue losses he estimated at between $400 million and $500 million.
He maintained that the government's decision to rationalise the VAT system was intended to improve tax compliance, strengthen revenue collection, and support fiscal sustainability.
Social Protection Measures
Prasad also pointed to several social assistance programmes implemented by the Coalition Government, including, more than $170 million in back-to-school assistance over three years; support reaching more than 200,000 students annually, and the write-off of approximately $650 million in debt affecting around 53,000 families. He argued that these initiatives demonstrate that fiscal discipline and social protection can be pursued simultaneously.
The Missing Discussion
While Prasad's presentation focused heavily on macroeconomic indicators, fiscal consolidation, and long-term planning, critics may argue that several issues received limited attention.
These include persistent concerns about the high cost of living, slow wage growth relative to inflation, housing affordability, increasing emigration of skilled workers, the continuing dependence on tourism, and the practical challenges of achieving meaningful economic diversification.
Equally absent was any detailed discussion of the legal and political controversies currently surrounding the NFP leader, including the criminal charges he faces under the Political Parties Act relating to alleged declaration breaches, allegations he denies.
Biman Prasad's presentation offered a broad defence of the Coalition Government's economic strategy and an optimistic vision for Fiji's future.
Whether Fiji ultimately achieves the ambitious targets set out in Vision 2050 will depend not only on fiscal discipline and economic growth but also on the government's ability to translate long-term plans into measurable improvements in living standards, productivity, investment, and public confidence.
For now, the debate remains open as to whether the Coalition's economic record represents a genuine transformation of Fiji's economy or merely a temporary stabilisation following the extraordinary disruptions of the COVID-19 era.
Speaking at the recent economic dialogue, National Federation Party leader and former Finance Minister Biman Chand Prasad outlined what he described as four central priorities for Fiji's economic future: jobs, incomes, resilience, and fiscal stability.
Prasad anchored his presentation around the Coalition Government's National Development Plan and Vision 2050, arguing that Fiji had, for the first time, articulated a clear objective of achieving high-income country status by 2050. He maintained that this ambition would require substantial structural transformation rather than a continuation of existing economic policies and growth patterns.
According to Prasad, tourism will remain the backbone of the Fijian economy because of Fiji's established comparative advantages, including its geographical location, tourism infrastructure, and natural environment. However, he acknowledged that Fiji has historically struggled to diversify its economic base and argued that future growth would depend upon stronger performance in agriculture, fisheries, manufacturing, and higher-value exports.
Biman Prasad also highlighted investment priorities in infrastructure, housing, health, education, and climate resilience. Referring to ongoing collaboration with the World Bank, he pointed to plans for a new national hospital and broader health-sector reforms.
Warning of a Global Fuel Shock
A significant portion of Prasad's address focused on what he characterised as an emerging global fuel crisis.
Drawing comparisons with the 2008 oil price shock, he noted that crude oil prices reached approximately US$145 per barrel during July 2008. Adjusted for inflation, he suggested that this would be equivalent to roughly US$225 per barrel in today's terms.
Prasad recalled that Fiji experienced substantial inflationary pressures during that period, culminating in severe foreign exchange shortages and the eventual devaluation of the Fiji dollar in 2009.
He argued that the current economic challenge differs fundamentally from the COVID-19 crisis. Whereas the pandemic primarily generated unemployment and income loss, he said the present threat is centred on affordability pressures and the rising cost of living.
Defending the Coalition's Fiscal Record
Turning to public finances, Prasad acknowledged that Fiji's fiscal challenges predated both the Coalition Government and the pandemic.
He noted that economic growth had already slowed significantly before COVID-19 and that the economy subsequently contracted by approximately 17 percent during the pandemic period.
According to Prasad, when the Coalition Government assumed office in December 2022, it inherited a fragile fiscal position characterised by high debt and large deficits. He said the government's strategy has been to balance fiscal consolidation with economic growth and social protection.
Among the outcomes he attributed to Coalition policies were reduction of the budget deficit from approximately 7.2 percent in 2022 to 3.4 percent and subsequently 2.5 percent; reduction in the debt-to-GDP ratio from around 91.8 percent in mid-2022 to approximately 79 percent by 2025, and three consecutive years of revenue growth exceeding 3 percent.
Prasad argued that these indicators demonstrate meaningful progress in restoring fiscal stability, although he acknowledged that significant challenges remain.
Vat Controversy
The Deputy Prime Minister also defended the government's controversial VAT reforms.
Responding to critics, he argued that Fiji's previous multi-rate VAT structure — consisting of 0 percent, 9 percent and 15 percent rates — created opportunities for tax leakage and abuse.
According to Prasad, some businesses were charging consumers at higher VAT rates while remitting tax at lower rates, resulting in revenue losses he estimated at between $400 million and $500 million.
He maintained that the government's decision to rationalise the VAT system was intended to improve tax compliance, strengthen revenue collection, and support fiscal sustainability.
Social Protection Measures
Prasad also pointed to several social assistance programmes implemented by the Coalition Government, including, more than $170 million in back-to-school assistance over three years; support reaching more than 200,000 students annually, and the write-off of approximately $650 million in debt affecting around 53,000 families. He argued that these initiatives demonstrate that fiscal discipline and social protection can be pursued simultaneously.
The Missing Discussion
While Prasad's presentation focused heavily on macroeconomic indicators, fiscal consolidation, and long-term planning, critics may argue that several issues received limited attention.
These include persistent concerns about the high cost of living, slow wage growth relative to inflation, housing affordability, increasing emigration of skilled workers, the continuing dependence on tourism, and the practical challenges of achieving meaningful economic diversification.
Equally absent was any detailed discussion of the legal and political controversies currently surrounding the NFP leader, including the criminal charges he faces under the Political Parties Act relating to alleged declaration breaches, allegations he denies.
Biman Prasad's presentation offered a broad defence of the Coalition Government's economic strategy and an optimistic vision for Fiji's future.
Whether Fiji ultimately achieves the ambitious targets set out in Vision 2050 will depend not only on fiscal discipline and economic growth but also on the government's ability to translate long-term plans into measurable improvements in living standards, productivity, investment, and public confidence.
For now, the debate remains open as to whether the Coalition's economic record represents a genuine transformation of Fiji's economy or merely a temporary stabilisation following the extraordinary disruptions of the COVID-19 era.
A public apology is perhaps overdue
I wish to apologise unreservedly for the grave offence of analysing and writing about the State of the Fijian Economy while allegedly ensconced in a tent pitched on Oxford Street, London, surrounded by empty Peroni beer bottles and in what NFP leader Biman Chand Prasad generously describes as a state of advanced intoxication.
In hindsight, I now realise that economic commentary should only be undertaken by individuals seated in ministerial offices, boardrooms, or television studios, preferably while facing corruption investigations, criminal charges, perjury allegations, or unresolved declarations of assets controversies.
Clearly, a tent in Oxford Street, London, is no place from which to examine public accounts, budget deficits, debt levels, inflation figures, procurement decisions, or conflicts of interest.
The fact that economic data, audited reports, company records, court judgments, parliamentary papers, and statutory declarations remain exactly the same whether read from a tent, a palace, a prison cell, or a university library is a technicality that I regret overlooking.
I therefore apologise for the shocking possibility that a slightly dishevelled Indo-Fijian, sitting beneath canvas in London, may have spent more time reading documents than some of the distinguished personalities featured in Fiji's endless economic talkfests.
I further apologise for any distress caused by the suggestion that facts remain facts regardless of the location, hairstyle, beverage consumption, or sleeping arrangements of the person examining them.
Going forward, I shall endeavour to conduct all future economic analysis from a suitably respectable venue. Until then, readers are kindly requested to focus not on the evidence, documents, and arguments presented, but on the far more important question of whether the author was holding a beer while reading them.
After all, attacking the messenger has always been considerably easier than answering the message.
I wish to apologise unreservedly for the grave offence of analysing and writing about the State of the Fijian Economy while allegedly ensconced in a tent pitched on Oxford Street, London, surrounded by empty Peroni beer bottles and in what NFP leader Biman Chand Prasad generously describes as a state of advanced intoxication.
In hindsight, I now realise that economic commentary should only be undertaken by individuals seated in ministerial offices, boardrooms, or television studios, preferably while facing corruption investigations, criminal charges, perjury allegations, or unresolved declarations of assets controversies.
Clearly, a tent in Oxford Street, London, is no place from which to examine public accounts, budget deficits, debt levels, inflation figures, procurement decisions, or conflicts of interest.
The fact that economic data, audited reports, company records, court judgments, parliamentary papers, and statutory declarations remain exactly the same whether read from a tent, a palace, a prison cell, or a university library is a technicality that I regret overlooking.
I therefore apologise for the shocking possibility that a slightly dishevelled Indo-Fijian, sitting beneath canvas in London, may have spent more time reading documents than some of the distinguished personalities featured in Fiji's endless economic talkfests.
I further apologise for any distress caused by the suggestion that facts remain facts regardless of the location, hairstyle, beverage consumption, or sleeping arrangements of the person examining them.
Going forward, I shall endeavour to conduct all future economic analysis from a suitably respectable venue. Until then, readers are kindly requested to focus not on the evidence, documents, and arguments presented, but on the far more important question of whether the author was holding a beer while reading them.
After all, attacking the messenger has always been considerably easier than answering the message.
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COMING SOON: How Biman Prasad became an Adjunct Professor at Monash University on 1 June 2023, just days before co-authoring and publishing academic articles with Paresh Narayan and Joel Abraham. According to Monash, Prasad's appointment runs until 31 May 2028
