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'The Government has now gone back to descendants of the signatories to the 1874 Deed of Cession in appointment of Tui Macuata as President.' What a relief compared to Rabuka's 1987 President, Ratu Penaia Ganilau

25/10/2021

Sitiveni Rabuka's Cakaudrove paramount chief, Ratu Sir Penaia Ganilau, was appointed to preside over the overtly racist 1990 Constitution of Fiji that introduced South African style apartheid in Fiji. Approved by the Great Council of Chiefs, the Constitution had entrenched i-Taukei political supremacy in perpetuity. The new post-coup president Ratu Sir Penaia Ganilau, echoing the high-priest and architect of racism in South Africa, Dr H. F. Verwoerd, had affirmed primacy of race in Fiji. He had also defended Rabuka's enshrinement of Christianity as a state religion. Ganilau was supported by his post coup Prime Minister and later President, Ratu Sir Kamisese Mara who insisted the 1990 racist Constitution addressed 'the rights and aspirations' of the i-Taukei population'. These pronouncements, however, did not represent the majority opinion. As a Maori professor, Ranginui Walker, declared in Auckland in 1987:
'The coup is nothing more than a shameful use by an oligarchy that refuses to recognize and accept the winds of change in Fiji. It would appear from the distance that the Great Council of Chiefs, still living in their traditional ways, have been misled. Their land rights are secure under the 1970 constitution. But because they have not been taught their rights they are readily manipulated and swayed by demagogues.'
Fijileaks: The appointment of Ratu Wiliame Katonivere has nothing to do with the Deed of Cession. His appointment as new president is an insurance, to ensure FFP remains in power by hook or crook

By VICTOR LAL
The 1990 Constitution:

This Constitution brought me into direct conflict with Mara, Ganilau and Rabuka when the late Professor Asesela Ravuvu and I exchanged sharp words at the British Foreign and Commonwealth Office seminar in London on the constitutional developments in Fiji after the 1987 coups. Also present across the table was Ratu Epeli Nailatikau, then Rabuka's High Commissioner to London, and later the post-Ghai constitution President of Fiji. It was at this seminar where I repeated what I had told the British television audience: "The 1987 coups raise one and only question: how many generation does one have to wait to become a native. My ancestors were coolie Indians, not ME or my fellow Indo-Fijians." Defending the nauseating racial and constitutional developments was Isikeli Mataitoga, later High Court judge after the Bainimarama coup. Mataitoga is now ensconced in Japan as Fiji's ambassador.

The 1990 Constitution also led to arrests, beatings, and tortures when a group of Indo-Fijians, led by Dr Anirudh Singh, set fire to this Constitution in public as a mark of protest. In our fight for Indo-Fijian rights was a fellow young traveller Aiyaz Sayed Khaiyum, later FFP Attorney-General and Minister for Justice. He is credited as one of the architects of the 2013 Constitution of Fiji.

BEAR HUGS: As FFP president RATU WILIAME KATONIVERE is elected PRESIDENT of Fiji, Fiji Labour Party claims both Katonivere and runner up RO KEPA should not have been entertained on the floor of the House

22/10/2021

"One cannot be president of a political party one day and the next day become President of the nation. It makes a total mockery of the Constitution. I am surprised that the Opposition made the same mistake. Ro Teimumu Kepa is a sitting Member of Parliament of the opposition Sodelpa party. Her nomination should not have been entertained on the floor of the House. What is worse, the Speaker should have known better. But he allowed this comedy of errors to go through."
FLP leader Mahendra Pal Chaudhry
Fijileaks: FLP should challenge appointment in Fiji's High Court

What a comedy of errors!

Labour Leader Mahendra Chaudhry says neither of the two candidates nominated for the Office of President in Parliament this morning, qualified for the position.

Both the nominees are disqualified within the spirit and intent of the Constitution. The Office of the President is supposed to be apolitical, divorced from any political party affiliation.

Section 83(1) (c) of the 2013 Constitution disqualifies “anyone who is a member, or holder of any office in any political party” from being a candidate for the office of the President.

"The Turaga Tui Macuata, Ratu Wiliame Katonivere is known to be the president of the Fiji First Party as per the information last published by the Registrar of Political Parties in December 2020.

When did he vacate that office? We have not seen any notice of his resignation from the post or as a member of Fiji First. Surely if the president of a ruling political party resigns, it should be a matter of public information.

Our inquiries of some Fiji First MPs disclosed that even they were unaware of Ratu Wiliame having vacated the party president’s post.

“Fiji First is run like a private company with two directors making all the decisions,” said one of them.

“In any case, one cannot be president of a political party one day and the next day become President of the nation. It makes a total mockery of the Constitution,” said Mr Chaudhry.

"I am surprised that the Opposition made the same mistake. Ro Teimumu Kepa is a sitting Member of Parliament of the opposition Sodelpa party. Her nomination should not have been entertained on the floor of the House.

"What is worse, the Speaker should have known better. But he allowed this comedy of errors to go through,” said Mr Chaudhry.

THE LAST LAUGH?: As FLP leader MAHENDRA CHAUDHRY takes a swipe at Suva lawyer RICHARD NAIDU, "The 2022 elections will be a completely different ball game. Wait and see", who will have last laugh?

17/10/2021

HUMPTY DUMPTY: 'If history is any guide, it will be Richard Naidu.
But let us wait and see who will lead the desired Coalition Party in 2022'

Get it right, Richard NAIDU

Well, Richard Naidu, for someone rated as one of the country’s top notch lawyers, you appear to be rather obtuse. Obviously you did not read Mr Chaudhry’s article thoroughly, as you should have.

Of course, Mr Chaudhry answered your point about “small parties”. But he did it tactfully as an experienced political leader would without stepping on toes.

Read once again the paras about nothing in politics being permanent. He pointed out several examples from history to illustrate this.

Besides, NFP should recall this rather vividly. Against all odds and riding high in its coalition with Rabuka , it received a shocking rebuke from the electorate when it was completely annihilated in the 1999 general elections by a “small” Labour Party that the polls showed had no hope in hell of winning.

Politics is the art of the possible as we have demonstrated time and again.

Your argument is not only fallacious but it smacks of utter arrogance and is unbecoming at a time when attempts are being made to get opposition parties together to contest the 2022 elections as a united front – in the national interest.

The 2022 elections will be a completely different ball game. Wait and see.

Richard Naidu

FLP Statement

POLITICAL ROAR: A PRIDE OF LIONS FAIL TO BRING DOWN BABY ELEPHANT

FIJI - Where things fall apart: An Opinion Column by Professor BRIJ LAL makes interesting reading but our good friend falls into same sinkhole as other Fiji Times writers: a tightly knit cabal singing choreograhed hymns

16/10/2021

"My People's Alliance Party government will take action to end the ordeal of Professor Brij Lal and his wife and welcome them home."
Sitiveni Rabuka, launching his new party
"A military coup was unleashed to restore the status quo ante. Opinions differ about its causes and the involvement of key players in it. Mr Sitiveni Rabuka, still in public life, might one day shed light on the events..." Professor Brij Lal, in his Fiji Times Opinion piece

VICTOR LAL (right) with Mohammed Rafiq Kahan the mastermind who shipped tons of weapons into Fiji to overthrow the racist Rabuka military government. The coupist racist failed in his bid to put them on trial in Fiji, for after all it was Rabuka who had committed treason against the Queen and the elected FLP-NFP government in 1987

Fijileaks: Under the Racist Coupist Rabuka, another Lal, our Editor-in-Chief, saw his Fiji passport cancelled in 1988 following the discovery of the arms shipment to Fiji (arms requested by politicians still craving for political power), and for two decades had to travel on a United Nations Travel Document (Refugee Passport, originally designed for displaced Jews fleeing Adolf Hitler and the pograms). He is yet to reclaim his Fijian citizenship despite thousands (both opponents and supporters) benefitting from FFP's Dual Citizenship Decree. The Fiji Times Opinion columnists refuse to hold Rabuka to account, for it doesn't suit their political agenda. Previously, some were Bainimarama's grog buddies. Recently, we informed Fijians of all races to think very hard before jumping to support politicians opposed to FFP government. History teaches us that they will BETRAY you for the sake of Political Power
Cry, the Beloved Country

'The logic of racial politics came to the fore in the April 1977 general elections when 24 per cent of the Fijian communal votes went to Sakeasi Butadroka’s Fijian Nationalist Party, causing the Alliance’s temporary defeat. The Alliance leader Ratu Mara realized anew the advice of David Butler of Nuffield College, Oxford, that Fijian unity would be a prerequisite for Fijian rule. To that end, the Alliance government put its multiracial ism on hold and began to consolidate its ethnic base."
Professor Brij Lal

Sir David Butler and our Founding Editor-in-Chief, Oxford

'I only met Ratu Mara once in 1967, and I may have said this-not as a constitutional expert but as a sensible observer.'
Sir David Butler, May 1987 to our Founding Editor-in-Chief, then his former student

On Sunday, 17 OCTOBER, Sir David Butler celebrates his 96th Birthday in Oxford

Sir David Butler to Lord Whitelaw in 1967

Fijileaks: Our Founding Editor-in-Chief feels duty bound to point out a particular reference to his former academic supervisor at Oxford, Sir David Butler, under whose supervision he wrote his study of Fiji's Racial Politics - The Coming Coup, later published as Fiji: Coups in Paradise - Race, Politics and Military Intervention. In his Opinion piece for the Fiji Times, the learned Professor Brij Lal writes as follows: 'The logic of racial politics came to the fore in the April 1977 general elections when 24 per cent of the Fijian communal votes went to Sakeasi Butadroka’s Fijian Nationalist Party, causing the Alliance’s temporary defeat. The Alliance leader Ratu Mara realized anew the advice of David Butler of Nuffield College, Oxford, that Fijian unity would be a prerequisite for Fijian rule. To that end, the Alliance government put its multiracial ism on hold and began to consolidate its ethnic base."
Our Founding Editor-in-Chief had the previous year finished his manuscript, approved by Sir David, and contained a Foreword by the Oxford don, when the racially motivated Rabuka's 1987 coups happened. Since Sir David had read, corrected, challenged and criticized every line and the 12 chapters of the study over a period of three years, he was well placed to respond to Ratu Mara's reference to him at a press conference shortly after the May 1987 coup. Coincidentally, his son, the late Gareth Butler (1965-2008), had just joined the BBC in 1987, at central talks and features in the current affairs department of Bush House. The Fiji Coup was his first assignment, and so the BUTLERS turned to our Editor-in-Chief for guidance. The young Gareth, born and brought up in Oxford, who had chosen journalism, unlike his Oxford academic parents, did a fantastic job, explaining to the world the '1987 Coups'. In any case, he used to have general conversations with our Editor-in-Chief at his parents house or whenever he was visiting Nuffield College to see his father. Gareth's journalism career took off after that first Fiji broadcast. He steered BBC Radio 4's election night coverage, taking charge of editing the general election programme of 2005, countless local council elections, European polls and US election nights. His last job at the BBC was as deputy editor of The Politics Show, which he had joined at its birth in 2003. Lets return to Sir David Butler. After the 14 May 1987 Coup, our Editor-in- Chief went to Sir David's office in the college and showed him a news item where Ratu Sir Kamisese Mara had blamed him: 'I felt that the [1970] Constitution was right and I had consulted a constitutional expert, David Butler by name, and his opinion was that the Constitution is right and [if] Fijians stay united, we would still have power for a long time". Responding to Ratu Mara's statement of 28 May 1987, Sir David wanted our Editor-in-Chief to put across his response, which was included in post Coup chapter, 'Soldiers in Paradise'. David Butler: 'I only met Ratu Mara once in 1967, and I may have said this-not as a constitutional expert but as a sensible observer.' Ironically, Ratu Mara's public statement implied that Sir David was indirectly responsible for the plight of the Indo-Fijians and our Editor-in-Chief. Sir David had not only supervised the study but had introduced our Editor-in-Chief to Professor Sir Brian Keith-Lucas, then the only surviving member of the three-man team which reviewed Fiji's electoral system in 1975. Sir Keith, formerly of Nuffiled College, Oxford, had kindly commented on Chapter Three, "The Electoral System" and had shared further insights into what transpired behind the scenes during the review process. Sir David also introduced our Editor-in-Chief to Sir Zelman Cowen, the former Governor-General of Australia and Provost of Oriel College, Oxford. Sir Zelman made helpful comments after reading Chapter Four on the 1977 Fiji constitutional crisis and the 1975 Australian constitutional crisis. Our Editor-in-Chief always found it puzzling that his own research and writings including the contents of Fiji: Coups in Paradise have never warranted even a passing reference in any of Professor Brij Lal's writings and published works, to date. As for the Fiji Times, it has never published a dissenting Opinion from our Founding Editor-in-Chief, for it doesn't fit squarely with the writings of the cabal that have captured the Opinion column of that paper. Finally, in 1992, when Sir David retired as Official Fellow of Nuffield College, he passed on to our Editor-in-Chief a thick file relating to his role in the founding of the Alliance Party, the behind the scenes role during the drafting of the 1970 Constitution and other private papers and exchanges between British rulers and the political leaders in Fiji. We hope to publish them one day. On Sunday, 17 OCTOBER, Sir David Butler celebrates his 96th Birthday in Oxford. Its a long journey for a man who transformed the study of British politics, Opinion Polls, the Electoral System, and the fate and fortunes of British political leaders, beginning with Sir Winston Churchill. Sir Butler had two lengthy meetings with Winston Churchill in the early 1950s. Sir David was only twenty-five when he met Churchill.The first, on Monday 6 February 1950, was a four-hour dinner that the two enjoyed at Churchill's country home Chartwell after the former Prime Minister had seen Sir David Butler's January 1950 Economist article explaining the concept of 'swing' in elections. Sir David has frequently described this evening as one of the key turning points of his life. On the way home, Sir David wrote up his recollections into a six-page account, which survives in the personal Sir David Butler archives at Nuffield College, Oxford

Meanwhile, we let Professor Brij Lal speak to us through his Fiji Times Opinion column, Fiji: Where Things Fall Apart:

Reproduced from National Federation Party Facebook:

By Professor Brij Lal

Fiji is a bit like Churchill’s Russia, a ‘riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.’ Here is a beautiful country full of a talented population, sophisticated infrastructure and abundant natural resources which is sadly prone to debilitating self-inflected wounds that hobble its present and dent its future. One coup is bad enough for any country, but three (or four) in short succession is sheer madness.

Yet, despite the mayhem, there has never been a serious reflection on why things have turned out the way they have, why ‘the Centre Cannot Hold,’ to quote Chinua Achebe again. Its leaders kept sweeping the dust under the carpet but the dust never goes away. Or, to change the metaphor, they keep trying to turn the hands of the clock back but that does not do the clock any good.

The ghosts of past misdeeds have never been exorcised. They will continue to haunt the country: that is the lesson of history. There will always be a misguided colonel or a commodore lurking in the shadows dreaming of grandeur and glory, and fancying his chances. It has happened before.

Fiji’s problems lie in the failure of its leaders to confront the conundrum of its history. . Instead, they have always averted their eyes and kept on pouting pious platitudes about being a ‘beacon of hope to the world’ as Pope John Paul II intoned on a fleeting visit to Fiji in November 1986. Alas, prophesy was not his forte.

Colonial Heritage
Fiji’s problems start with the policies Fiji’s founding governor Sir Arthur Gordon promulgated soon after the cession of the islands to the United Kingdom on 10 October 1874. Three contending, not say contradictory, understandings formed the foundations of Fiji’s political culture.

The indigenous Fijians, now iTaukei, were by policy shielded from mainstream society and confined to their subsistence lifestyle under the leadership of their traditional elders with powers codified at law. In time they came to believe, or rather, were led to believe that their interests would be paramount in their own affairs. It was a protective concept.

Europeans, for their part, believed they would enjoy a privileged place on account of who they were and their preponderant contribution to the colonial economy. And Indo-Fijians, in their turn, demanded parity with other groups as full British subjects.

These competing demands constituted the critical conundrum of colonial Fiji. The British never really seriously sought to reconcile, preferring instead to invoke the happy metaphor of a three-legged stool upon which each group made their different and distinctive contribution. Fiji began to believe the myth.

The protocols and practices of the colonial government were occasionally challenged through strikes and boycotts but never seriously threatened. Tropical torpor did the rest. The status quo prevailed.

Towards Decolonization

In 1960, London sent a new Letters Patent to Fiji, the first since 1937, expanding the Legislative Council, enfranchising women, extending voting rights to all Fijians who until then had been represented in the Legislative Council by Great Council of Chiefs’ nominees. Internal self-governance was on the horizon and, beyond that, independence itself.

These proposals elicited distinct responses in Fiji, especially about the pace of change and its precise character. Fijian leaders saw no need for haste. The emerging Fijian leader Ratu KKT Mara explained in 1961 that he saw no advantage in independence, saying ‘we are not as stupid as that to ask for that,.’ rupturing Fiji’s ‘happy and historic relations’ with the United Kingdom.’ European leaders concurred.

AD Patel, the Indo-Fijian leader, disagreed. Independence would come to Fiji sooner rather than later, he said. The question was whether it would come as Lakshmi, goddess of wealth, or as Durga, goddess of destruction. For him, colonialism as a form of government ‘stands universally condemned in the modern world.’

London listened to the democratic argument but it sympathized with the Fijians. They had ceded the islands to Britain in the first place, and they were the ‘loyal race,’ in Julian Amery’s words. So, they worked to devise a formula with all the appearance of democratic representation but left the Fijians in control. Race formed the cornerstone of colonial thinking.

Independence

That was reflected in the 1970 Constitution. The principles of paramountcy, privilege and parity were retained, and ethnicity occupied the primary focus of electoral representation. The death of AD Patel in October 1969 had silenced a compelling voice for non racial political culture. His successors had succumbed to the logic of racial politics.

On the electoral system, the main cause of disagreement in the past, Governor Sir Robert Foster in his last Despatch of 8 October 1970, the UK had ‘fluffed’ -his word- the issue. The British did what the British do best: shift responsibility to a royal commission to be appointed after the first general elections to look into the matter, knowing that the entrenched power elite would never countenance any change that could conceivably jeopardize their own position, even if it was in the greater national good.

A royal commission under Sir Harry Street was appointed in 1975 and recommended proportional system for Fiji, but its report was still-born and hurriedly buried unmoaned in the bowels of the parliamentary library. The British had quietly washed their hands of the mess they had created. Ensconced in office, the Alliance would not budge, and the NFP was imploding. An opportunity for progressive political reform went bagging.

‘Race is a fact of Life’ became the new mantra of independent Fiji. Accordingly, every issue of public policy came to be seen through the prism of race. You were asked for your race when you opened your bank account, took out your driving licence, when you left or re-entered the country. Race stared you in the face at every turn.

The logic of racial politics came to the fore in the April 1977 general elections when 24 per cent of the Fijian communal votes went to Sakeasi Butadroka’s Fijian Nationalist Party, causing the Alliance’s temporary defeat. The Alliance leader Ratu Mara realized anew the advice of David Butler of Nuffield Collage, Oxford, that Fijian unity would be a prerequisite for Finjan rule. To that end, the Alliance government put its multiracial ism on hold and began to consolidate its ethnic base.

Predictably, the leading and indeed the founding members of the Indian Alliance, including Sir Vijay R Singh and James Shankar Singh, left the party and headed towards the NFP and later the Fiji Labour Party. The racial chasm became deeper.

Orthodoxy Challenged

The old understandings were finally ruptured in 1987 when the NFP-FLP Coalition narrowly won the general elections. A military coup was unleashed to restore the status quo ante. Opinions differ about its causes and the involvement of key players in it. Mr Sitiveni Rabuka, still in public life, might one day shed light on the events, but until then, certain things can be safely assumed.

Rabuka got carried away by hubris and public adulation to claim the sole authorship of the coup, but it is now clear that there were many individuals, interests and institutions behind him: the Methodist Church, the Taukei Movement, defeated politicians, sections of the Great Council of Chiefs, a concert of disgruntled forces united by the single goal of turning the hands of the clock back. We will never know who or what because, no one bothered to enquire in case the truth cut too close to the bone.

In the mid-1990s when Rabuka forged a remarkable working relationship with his once arch nemesis, Mr Jai Ram Reddy, in a rare moment of epiphany to embark on the road to reconciliation which culminated in the promulgation of the 1997 Constitution. It was an achievement of proportions whose import was not fully appreciated at the time. Another opportunity lost.

1997 and Beyond

But that triumph was short-lived. Once again, the politics of race reared its ugly head. Some iTaukei leaders who had voted for the 1997 Constitution began to campaign for its repudiation; one or two would miraculously join Frank Bainimarama’s cabinet as champions of multiracial. In 2000, backed by these ethnonationalists, George Speight launched his improbable putsch against the government of Mahendra Chaudhry.

Surprisingly, the GCC asked for the constitution to be changed. the very same one they had unanimously supported a few years back. ‘Right mission, wrong method,’ some chimed in.

George Speight is languishing in jail, but there can be no doubt that he was a frontman for others who quietly slunk into the shadows when the putsch seemed destined to fail. Where are they now? Once again, there was no enquiry into the causes of this tragedy.

Six years later, in December 2006, Commodore Frank Bainimarama overthrew the democratically elected government of Laisenia Qarase. It was not a coup, he said, but a ‘Clean Up Campaign,’ he said. But a coup by any other name is still a coup. And cleaning a country of corruption, no matter how endemic, can never by itself be a convincing enough reason to commit treason. The motives behind the coup remain murky.

Police Commissioner Andrew Hughes spoke of ‘shadowy characters’ behind the Commodore’, and Mr Bainimarama has himself said that prominent citizens, including businessmen, wanted him to do his coup. But no one was brought to justice, there was no enquiry. Who were these enablers of treason? Where are they now? Might they not be plotting their next move if things do not go their way? They should be called out and held accountable for their nefarious activities.

2013 Constitution

The 2013 Constitution is promoted as heralding a new, bright future for Fiji. It is true that it has many features which have ended the foundations of Fiji’s politics of the past. Fiji’s character has changed dramatically. The paramounts are gone and Indo-Fijian are now a third of the population. Many more Fijians live in urban and per-urban areas whose needs and interests are different to those of their rural counterparts. Travel and technology make the national boundary porous.

It is not clear that the light some see on the horizon comes from a new dawn breaking or from the flames of a funeral pyre of the old order dying. The fatal flaw of the present constitution lies in its provenance. It was conceived in secrecy and imposed by a decree. Citizens had no say in its formulation of implementation and therefore no ownership of it. Loyalty cannot be coerced, nor the deep human yearning for freedom extinguished by a decree. There can be no honour in illegitimate usurpation of power no matter what the excuse. The end will come. hopefully not with a bang but with a whimper.

Meanwhile, for the foreseeable future, to use the words of Matthew Arnold, Fiji is fated to wander ‘between two worlds, one dead and the other powerless to be born.’

Dr Brij V Lal, an Emeritus Professor of The ANU, was a member of the Fiji Constitution Review Commission chaired by Sir Paul Reeves.

Fijileaks: While it is a fact that the 2013 Constitution of Fiji was imposed without consultation and through a Decree, HISTORY shows that Ratu Mara's Alliance Party was defeated under the 1970 Constitution, and the Peoples Coalition, under Mahendra Chaudhry, won power in 1999 under the 1997 Constitution (Rabuka-Reddy Constitution, drafted by Brij Lal and his team). So, it is possible to unseat FFP under the 2013 Constitution. But certainly not by NFP, led by that 'Smart Ass Professor' BIMAN PRASAD, the Fiji Times' blue-eyed political boy. We also believe Sitiveni Rabuka and his People's Alliance Party are not the rightful party to dislodge FFP and take power after the 2022 elections.

"It would be unthinkable today. In the middle of a general election campaign with only two weeks to go before polling, a young, unknown research student from Nuffield College, Oxford, was summoned to a booze-fuelled tete a tete dinner with the leader of the Opposition at his country house. The student had written a piece for the Economist headed ‘Electoral Facts’. Crammed with data on by-election results, turnout and Gallup polls, it gave a formula for working out the ratio of votes to seats. The eminent politician had recognised this as ground-breaking stuff and he wanted to know more.

The year was 1950. The great man was Winston Churchill and the student was David Butler who, despite his youth, was already well on his way to revolutionising the analysis of elections. Years later he said that after that encounter with Churchill he was never in awe of any other situation or person.
The Churchill story is the opener in ‘Sultan of Swing’ by Michael Crick which tells story of how David Butler, an academic, became the first “telly don”, transforming the TV coverage of elections and devising one of the best known props of the small screen – the swingometer. “You invented that swingy thing”, observed the Queen when she knighted him some 55 years later. “More or less," he replied.
By the time he met Churchill, the 25 year old Butler had already pioneered the use of percentages in interpreting election results. In doing so he launched the new science of psephology. The name – more elegant than the suggested alternative of “electionolgy”- is derived from the Greek word for pebble which the Athenians dropped into an urn to vote. It was by what David Dimbleby called “the magic of psephology” that the BBC was able to predict the result of the 2017 election only minutes after the polls had closed.
Butler has analysed every British election since 1945, through the Nuffield election book series as well as in his broadcasts. In telling Butler’s story this book takes us on a canter through 70 years of democratic history, covering the interplay between government and academia as well as the changing relationship between TV and politics. "

COVID TRAVEL CHAOS. Left High and Dry. 'Thousands waiting to travel between Vanua Levu and Viti Levu are subjected to unnecessary hassle, inconvenience, expense because of Government's bungling procedures'

15/10/2021

“We are dealing here with people who have been stranded from their homes for months now. They are anxious to return to their families but are being unnecessarily delayed because of government red tape.”
FLP leader MAHENDRA CHAUDHRY

"Fiji Airways has operated more than 355 repatriation flights to reunite Fijians and visitors alike with their families and loved ones."

Fijileaks: Maybe, but WHO BROUGHT COVID INTO FIJI?

“It takes several days to get a travel clearance. People are being pushed from pillar to post, often forced to go through four or five rounds of swabbing over as many days and made to travel over long distances from one government department to another. This is yet another instance of this government’s gross indifference and insensitivity to people’s needs. Before announcing the opening of travel between the two islands, it should have streamlined the process so that travel passes are issued without much inconvenience.”

One Mind, One Goal, Facebook:

Thousands of people waiting to travel between Vanua Levu and Viti Levu are being put to unnecessary hassle, inconvenience and expense because government has not streamlined its procedures, says Labour Leader Mahendra Chaudhry.

“It takes several days to get a travel clearance. People are being pushed from pillar to post, often forced to go through four or five rounds of swabbing over as many days and made to travel over long distances from one government department to another.

“This is yet another instance of this government’s gross indifference and insensitivity to people’s needs. Before announcing the opening of travel between the two islands, it should have streamlined the process so that travel passes are issued without much inconvenience,” Mr Chaudhry said.

The Labour Party has received numerous complaints from travellers caught at both ends.

“We are dealing here with people who have been stranded from their homes for months now. They are anxious to return to their families but are being unnecessarily delayed because of government red tape,” said Mr Chaudhry

Our information is that more than 7000 residents of Vanua Levu are still stranded in Viti Levu while about 4000 from Viti Levu are stuck in Vanua Levu.

The Commissioner Central’s office is responsible for issuing passes from this end. It is, reportedly, imposing strict control on how many can travel at any one time. Even those with confirmed flights, are refused travel.

One complainant said his wife and daughter, stranded in Suva since the April lockdown, have had to undergo swabs four times in two weeks. They had confirmed bookings to travel on Thursday, for the third time, but were again refused a pass by the Commissioner’s Office which claimed the flight was full.

There is the further inconvenience of getting swabbed at a medical facility in Suva and then travelling all the way to the Commissioner’s office in Nausori to get a travel clearance.

“Why are people being put to such inconvenience? Why isn’t an office being opened somewhere in Suva for those wishing to obtain a pass? I am just flabbergasted at government’s lack of concern for the people,” said Mr Chaudhry.

“We are reliably informed that 35 passengers with proper clearances, about to board the ferry at the Natovi Landing last Monday, were stopped from travelling by the Commissioner’s office. By the time they returned to Suva, it was past curfew time (11pm). The shipping company had to transport the passengers to their homes.

Similar problems abound at the Vanua Levu end. Anyone wishing to travel to Viti Levu has to first apply to the Transport ministry for a registration number which is then taken to the Commissioner Northern’s office for clearance. A justification for travel is required.

Then they go to the Health Ministry for a swab test. And then back to the Commissioner’s office for a pass.

Even then, travel is not guaranteed because the Commissioner’s office controls the number of people that can travel at any one time.

For instance, the only shipping company currently operating, Inter Link, is allowed to carry only 40-45 people.

On arrival at Nabouwalu all passengers, even those residing in Bua, are first taken by the Health Authorities to Labasa and then dropped off at their homes for self-isolation.

FLYING SKY HIGH: As NFP sat on its 'fat ar*e, swiping grog', Fiji Airways $10million investment in state-of-the art 330 simulator and state of the art Max 8 simulator enables Fiji's airline to take to the SKIES - by December

14/10/2021

SELLING TIME: Fiji Airways spent more than $10million to buy a 737 Max simulator to help save on costs and lost productivity of sending pilots to Singapore, Australia and the United States for training. Now it is getting calls from airlines thousands of miles away to train at the Academy

Fiji Airways 737 MAX 8

Fijileaks: Two of our Editor-in-Chief's own nephews have strong links with the Fiji Airways Academy at Namaka, Nadi. One is now Captain with Air Kiribati and another is underdoing his pilot training at the Academy

GUNS HAVE RULED THE ROOST: 'We have seen how a shift in political power resulted in the trashing of Indo-Fijian rights and freedoms in the past.' Chaudhry was responding to Rabuka's speech at launch of PARTY

13/10/2021

"We have a fight on our hands and I believe in dealing with it until the matter is resolved one way or the other. I was born here. I am not a foreigner here. I have every right to fight for this country. We are not going to subjugate ourselves to a constitution of this kind [the racist 1990 Constitution], signing away all our rights and agreeing to be slaves."
Mahendra Chaudhry, on 1990 Racist Constitution

On 7 May 1999, FLP's Dr Ganesh Chand had disclosed in a Letters to Editor that he had warned his colleagues privately and publicly in 1992 that Sitiveni Rabuka cannot be trusted:
"This is my principled stand. On the eve of this [1999] election, the burning question remains: can Rabuka be trusted?"

SKY IS NOT THE LIMIT: NFP president PIO TIKODUADUA, 'Fiji Airways is starting up again as it left off – as spiteful and ungrateful employer of the staff it dumped 16 months ago.' Fijileaks: "Former staff must FIGHT ON"

13/10/2021

“Even though Fiji Airways is once again recruiting employees, it has set a requirement that it will not take former staff, particularly cabin crew and flight attendants, unless they withdraw their claims against it.”
NFP President Tikoduadua

PIE IN THE SKY! Fijileaks: Meanwhile, the 'SMART ASS PROFESSOR' and NFP leader BIMAN PRASAD is yet to get hold of Fiji Airways Annual Reports that AVIATION MINISTER Khaiyum claimed was at the Registrar of Companies office in Suva. And, that is why, we have called on the NFP to EJECT its "NFP Airways" PILOT-In-Chief Prasad before the next poll. Writing long-winded articles in the uncritical Fiji Times, accompanied by a smiling and genteel photograph of him, is not the way to win elections. In 2020, he assured Fijileaks that his NFP staff were going to obtain the annual reports but just empty promises on his part. When we chided KAMAL IYER, the NFP administrator, 'to get off your fat arse, instead of just swiping grog whole day' to look for the Fiji Airways annual reports, they didn't take it kindly. And here is the so-called political leader claiming he (BIMAN PRASAD) is the best man to FIX Fiji's woes! We had spent our own money to search for the Waqavuka files and needed those annual reports to complete and publish our findings.
BLOODY HOPELESS NFP PILOT-IN-CHIEF.
We have never been a mouth-piece for the Opposition
political parties but to also hold them to account

“Victimisation and discriminatory behaviour” is how National Federation Party President Pio Tikoduadua has described the demand that former Fiji Airways workers give up their legal action against it if they want to be re-hired.

Mr Tikoduadua noted that as the airline prepares for resumption of flights after reopening of the borders, “Fiji Airways is starting up again as it left off – as the spiteful and ungrateful employer of the staff it dumped 16 months ago”.

“Even though Fiji Airways is once again recruiting employees, it has set a requirement that it will not take former staff, particularly cabin crew and flight attendants, unless they withdraw their claims against it,” he said.

“Let us remind the people of Fiji what Fiji Airways did”.

“For years it built its brand and business on the faces of its proudly Fijian cabin crew and the personal sacrifices of their families. Then suddenly nearly 800 of those same loyal Fijian employees were sacked overnight by expatriate managers who continue to be fully employed.

“Our Fijian tourism front liners were not paid redundancy compensation. They and their families were suddenly left with nothing to fall back on”.

“This act of ruthlessness happened just a few hours before Government got Parliament to guarantee $455 million in loans to Fiji Airways’ aircraft owners and lenders such as Asian Development Bank”.

“The Opposition asked that Fiji Airways use a small amount of these funds to give workers some relief. Reasonable compensation at a time when they needed the funds would have, at the most, cost $10 million”.

“More than 400 cabin crew and flight attendants then brought legal action against their former employer. Fiji Airways has deliberately stalled and tried to delay the progress of those legal actions”.

“Now, when it needs its staff back, Fiji Airways is forcing them to withdraw those legal actions before it will hire them.”

“So, Fiji Airways will turn away the hundreds of people it has trained, who are experienced and skilled at their work, but who just want their day in court over what happened to them, rather than be fair-minded or protective of their rights”.

“Having kicked the very people who built the airline once, Fiji Airways is kicking them and their families again.”
“The Government as 51% owner of the airline has made no attempt to stop this behaviour. No doubt it is encouraging it”.

“When NFP is elected into government, we will direct Fiji Airways to support the reinstatement as well as respect the proper process through the courts of these legal actions and compensation to affected staff”.

“This is not about politics. This is about respecting the rights of all citizens of Fiji to fair work practices and their rights to bring claims against the abusive actions of powerful employers”.

Pio Tikoduadua
President

Muncipal Council Elections: It is wrong to assume that just because a ratepayer dislikes the FFP, he or she will always choose an Opposition candidate. Our Founding Editor-in-Chief's uncle, an Alliance Party nominee, was elected twice, in 1969, and in 1970, as Lord Mayor of Suva. His son, the late RAVIN LAL, was for over two decades the Advertising Manager of the Fiji Times and later on at the old Fiji Sun until he was forced to leave Fiji after the 1987 Coups. Sadly, he died in Auckland, New Zealand, instead of the country of his birth - Fiji Islands. In fact, it was Fiji's very own Lucifer SITIVENI RABUKA who politicized municipal council leadership by implanting his i-Taukei racist stooges to run the councils. Now, under the guise of People's Alliance Party, he is scouting for VOTES. As far as we are concernced, we cannot HERO worship Coupist Rabuka and VILIFY Coupist Bainimarama.
Coupists ARE Coupists. FULL STOP!.
Only Jai Ram Reddy and Biman Prasad think differently!
The NFP has no moral standing to chastise Aiyaz Khaiyum, for it went into political bed with Rabuka, and might still end up as his poliitcal mistress in 2022. Rabuka had the gall to re-assure us that under him Indo-Fijians will be safe, describing them as Fijians of Indian ancestry. We don't need re-assurance from him, for Fiji belongs to us as it belongs to him. Our Founding Editor-in-Chief's own father was elected by a majority of i-Taukei Alliance Party members to be the chairman of the Tailevu North Alliance Party branch. When Rabuka seized power, an old Indo-Fijian aunt now nearing 100, asked one of the relatives:
"Where is this Rambhukaa (God Ram is Hungry) from?"
Relative: "He is from Fiji?"
Aunty: "Oh, but he is not speaking native i-Taukei like me?"
Relative: "Yes, because he is not from Viti Levu. He is from Vanua Levu?"
Aunty: "So, he is an immigrant in Suva?"
Relative: "Yes, definitely, and claiming to be indigenous, sorry."
IMMIGRANT: a person who comes to live permanently in a foreign country

ALLIANCE PARTY
Mayor RAJ MOTI LAL

RIP: Our Editor-in-Chief and the SINGH family in Auckland invite all those who want to partake in the live stream funeral service of his Uncle and Auckland barrister SATENDRA PRAKASH SINGH. Service starts at 12.45

12/10/2021

To view the live Funeral Service of Late SATENDRA PRAKASH SINGH
Please click the link below and use the given ID and Password.
Starts at 12:45 pm on Wednesday, 13th October 2021 (NZ time)
https://www.oneroomstreaming.com/login

Event ID: Annsfuneral
Password: FLXSMA
PLEASE NOTE DUE TO LEVEL 3 RESTRICTIONS, PUBLIC IS NOT PERMITTED TO ATTEND THE FUNERAL SERVICE. THANK YOU FOR YOUR UNDERSTANDING DURING THIS DIFFICULT TIME. YOU MAY CONTACT THE FAMILY FOR MORE INFORMATION.

Fijileaks: We will resume our postings after the Funeral Service

ECONOMIC WITH TRUTH? As Narube boasts of his role in International Bond and warns of FFP's financial mismanagement, secret cable from Ambassador Dinger in 2007 expose Narube-Chaudhry views on economy

12/10/2021

New Zealand Public Service Association national secretary Richard Wagstaff said it was a "deplorable" move that discriminated on the grounds of age and breached fundamental human rights. Public servants in Fiji had the union's sympathy.

Lorraine Seeto

Narube as Governor
of Reserve Bank

Reserve Bank Governor Savenaca Narube was the Chairman of the interim government's Economic Recovery Group (ERG), which recommended it

MONEY MAN: Chaudhry as Bainimarama's Interm Finance Minister

Lorraine Seeto [Senior Manager at the Reserve Bank of Fiji] said the Reserve Bank fully endorses the interim government's efforts to cut spending. Reserve Bank Governor Savenaca Narube is the Chairman of the interim government's Economic Recovery Group (ERG), which recommended
Lowering the civil service retirement age,
Deferring cost of living increases, and
Cutting salaries.
Seeto said the Reserve Bank was a strong opponent of the wage and back-pay package the Qarase government entered into with public sector unions last year [2006], and would be happy to see that agreement rescinded.
"Another source that will be increasingly tapped is the FNPF, Fiji's social security system. While Chaudhry may be able to mask Fiji's fundamental financial problems for a while, the regime will be able to live off bond proceeds, loans, and FNPF funds for only so long. Sooner or later, Fiji's average citizen will begin to feel the strong impact the coup has had on the economy. It is not clear at all how the interim government will cope when populist rhetoric confronts pocket book reality." LARRY DINGER to Washington

Dinger

Lorraine Seeto, Senior Manager at the Reserve Bank of Fiji, told us that despite [Interim Finance Minister Mahendra] Chaudhry's rhetoric, there is no doubt the economic downturn is a direct result of the coup. 2007 would have been a tough year for the economy, she said, even without the coup because of tight foreign reserves and the unexpected decision in late 2006 by Emperor Gold Mine to shut down operations...Seeto said the Reserve Bank fully endorses the interim government's efforts to cut spending. Reserve Bank Governor Savenaca Narube is the Chairman of the interim government's Economic Recovery Group (ERG), which recommended lowering the civil service retirement age, deferring cost of living increases, and cutting salaries. Seeto said the Reserve Bank was a strong opponent of the wage and back-pay package the Qarase government entered into with public sector unions last year, and would be happy to see that agreement rescinded. Seeto questioned how, even with these steps, Chaudhry will be able to keep to a 2% budget deficit, as he has promised. Given the tricks a pro like Chaudhry can play with budgets, she doubts the March budget presentation will make things much clearer."
The former US Ambassador to Fiji, Larry Dinger, secret cable to Washington,
22 February 2007
Qarase's $150 Million Bond - Chaudhry's Ace in the Hole? Seeto and
Anqian Huang, Asian Development Bank chief economist for Fiji agreed it is somewhat ironic that one factor keeping the interim government financially afloat is the US$150 million bond the Qarase government floated in Singapore last September [2006]. Huang told us the reserve situation is even worse than Seeto described. He pointed out that in early 2006 the Reserve Bank changed its definition of "reserves" to include offshore assets held by non-bank financial institutions. Under the new definition, reserves immediately increased by about FJ$270 million. Huang insisted that the change in definition was not justified, and does not meet international standards.
Chaudhry insisted the gloomy economic outlook was primarily due to the economic policies of the Qarase government.
"The nation knows that we were heading for an economic disaster before December 5," he said. Larry Dinger to Washington, 2007

“The downgrade of Fiji’s credit rating and the IMF’s scathing assessment of the economy confirm the worsening economic and financial crisis that Fiji is facing due to poor leadership. I initiated the first credit rating in Fiji to help fix the price of the first issue of our international bond. Fiji’s bonds were rated then as “non-investment” grade. During this government’s tenure, Fiji’s has dropped to “highly speculative investment...The irony is that we have been saying precisely the same thing for many years. But Government has not
listened. Instead, they have insisted that the economy and finance were in order. Now that the IMF and the rating agencies have told them that we are in crisis, will they listen? Based on its past track record, I doubt that the Government will listen. There is a very high likelihood that these warnings by the international experts will be discarded as we move towards the 2022 elections. I therefore urge the international communities and multilateral institutions to be extra vigilant to prevent this Government from sacrificing our future for its political survival. It has shown in past elections that financial prudence is subservient to its political agenda. If that happens, Fiji is bound to sink deeper into economic crisis and financial ruin.”
Savenaca Narube,
the Leader of Unity Fiji and former Governor of the Reserve Bank of Fiji

Summary

1. (C) Fiji will experience a severe economic downturn in 2007 as an after-effect of the December 2006 coup. Foreign reserves are very low (perhaps much lower than they appear in the Reserve Bank's end-of-year accounts), exports are flat, and levels of new investment are expected to be minimal. The major hope for the economy is a rapid tourism rebound, but tourism leaders tell us they expect a significant drop in revenue caused by lower visitor levels and deep discounts.

Fiji Reserve Bank officials tell us they are determined to avoid a devaluation or other drastic action that would reverberate throughout the economy. How the interim government deals with the economy will play a big role in determining the level of discontent in Fiji over the coming months and will have a direct impact on the stability of the current regime.

Chaudhry Says GDP Will Fall 2-4% in 2007

2. (C) As noted reftel, Interim Minister of Finance Mahendra Chaudhry went public earlier this month with an estimate that Fiji's economy will contract 2-4% in 2007. Chaudhry insisted the gloomy economic outlook was primarily due to the economic policies of the Qarase government.

"The nation knows that we were heading for an economic disaster before December 5," he said.

Lorraine Seeto, Senior Manager at the Reserve Bank of Fiji, told us that despite Chaudhry's rhetoric, there is no doubt the economic downturn is a direct result of the coup. 2007 would have been a tough year for the economy, she said, even without the coup because of tight foreign reserves and the unexpected decision in late 2006 by Emperor Gold Mine to shut down operations.

Exports, which fell about 5% in 2006 from 2005 levels (primarily due to textile declines), have shown few signs of picking back up. Nevertheless, the Reserve Bank projects that the economy would have grown 1-2% if the coup had not taken place. The coup has had a direct negative impact on tourism, investment, and consumption, Seeto said, above and beyond other factors.

3. (C) Seeto thinks the GDP forecast announced by Chaudhry might be too pessimistic. She believes GDP will drop about 2%. Seeto admitted, however, that some optimistic assumptions are built into her forecast, In mid-December the Reserve Bank's best estimate was that GDP would drop up to 10% in 2007. A projected rebound in tourism led the Bank to improve its forecast. Seeto admitted that other optimistic assumptions are built into the GDP forecast, including the assumption that EU funds to assist Fiji's sugar industry will not be cut off (Fiji and the EU are expected to hold consultations on EU aid in Brussels in March or April).

Anqian Huang, Asian Development Bank chief economist for Fiji, told us he believes the minus 2-4% GDP forecast is reasonable. Closing the Emperor Gold Mine will hurt (losing about FJ$50 million in exports), but other export sectors, such as agriculture, sugar, and mineral water, should not be affected by the coup, thus keeping the GDP downturn from turning into a free fall.

Financial Reserves on the Brink

4. (C) While the GDP numbers are worrying, Seeto and Huang both said their biggest concern is Fiji's low financial reserve level. The Reserve Bank's end of 2006 report puts reserves at FJ$832 million (US$492 million), or about 3.3 months of imports, up from 2.5 months of imports in mid-2006. Seeto said the numbers are misleading because they include US$150 million (FJ$250 million) in proceeds from a bond issued by the Qarase government on international markets last September and FJ$60 million in deferred fuel payments. If those two elements are deducted, Fiji's reserves would only be FJ$520 million, or a little over two months of imports.

5. (C) Huang told us the reserve situation is even worse than Seeto described. He pointed out that in early 2006 the Reserve Bank changed its definition of "reserves" to include offshore assets held by non-bank financial institutions. Under the new definition, reserves immediately increased by about FJ$270 million. Huang insisted that the change in definition was not justified, and does not meet international standards.

Andrew Milford, economist at the Pacific Financial Technical Assistance Center, an IMF-World Bank joint venture, told us the Reserve Bank's action was "borderline," and he was unaware of any other country using a similar definition of reserves. Nevertheless, the IMF had reluctantly agreed to the change, with the stipulation that those funds must be readily accessible to the Reserve Bank. He said the new definition allows the Bank to include offshore assets of the Fiji National Provident Fund (FNPF), Fiji's social security system, in its reserve calculations. Milford said Fiji tapped FNPF overseas funds at least once during the Qarase administration, and is likely to do so again, given the current shaky reserve situation. (Comment: It appears that the majority of Fiji's financial reserves now consist of a) proceeds from the USD$150 million bond offering, and b) offshore holdings of the FNPF. If those two items were deducted, Fiji's reserves would fall to about FJ$250 million, or one month's supply of imports. End comment.)

Qarase's $150 Million Bond - Chaudhry's Ace in the Hole?

6 (C) Seeto and Huang agreed it is somewhat ironic that one factor keeping the interim government financially afloat is the US$150 million bond the Qarase government floated in Singapore last September. The five-year bond was snapped up by investors at 7% interest. Heavy demand for the bond (it was oversubscribed by nearly 700%) pushed its interest rate down from the initial price guidance of 7.25%. Seeto commented that investors, who purchased the bond at a time which Fiji's prospects seemed bright, have not done well. Since the coup, the bond's value has dropped by about 10% from face value. From the Reserve Bank's perspective, however, the timing of the bond offering was perfect. There is no way, said Seeto, that Fiji could now borrow at anything close to a 7% rate.

Huang pointed out that the dismal performance of the Fiji bond over the past three months does not bode well for future Fiji borrowing on international markets. Moreover, in only five years Fiji will have to pay back the money it borrowed. Where will those funds come from?

7. (C) Seeto and Huang noted that, having already used the bond to inflate reserve levels at the end of 2006, Chaudhry is likely to use the bond proceeds to keep the deficit under control in the new budget he will announce in March. Seeto said she doesn't see how Chaudhry can avoid converting the bond proceeds (now denominated in U.S. dollars) into Fiji dollars to help pay bills. If he does this, however, reserve levels will drop sharply. It's a difficult balancing act, one that has received almost no publicity or public scrutiny. Seeto said the only other option is to borrow heavily on the domestic market. She noted that Chaudhry, long a critic of government borrowing from FNPF, is now (privately) a proponent of such borrowing.

What's the Interim Government's Fiscal Situation? The Reserve Bank Doesn't Know

8. (C) Seeto said that, in theory, the Reserve Bank is supposed to have access to all government financial records, including weekly debit and credit receipts. The reports the Bank is now getting, however, are far from complete. Therefore, the Bank has a very limited understanding of the interim government's fiscal situation, and even less information about military spending. Anecdotal reports, however, indicate that the regime is having real trouble paying its bills. Seeto noted that Fiji's tax authority had been unable to process tax refunds in a timely manner and that every ministry she talks to complains about being short of the funds needed to meet their obligations.

(Note: We made several requests to the Ministry of Finance for working level meetings to discuss Fiji's fiscal situation and the budget. All went unanswered. End note.)

Policy Steps to Ease the Financial Crunch

9. (C) Seeto said the Reserve Bank fully endorses the interim government's efforts to cut spending. Reserve Bank Governor Savenaca Narube is the Chairman of the interim government's Economic Recovery Group (ERG), which recommended lowering the civil service retirement age, deferring cost of living increases, and cutting salaries. Seeto said the Reserve Bank was a strong opponent of the wage and back-pay package the Qarase government entered into with public sector unions last year, and would be happy to see that agreement rescinded. Seeto questioned how, even with these steps, Chaudhry will be able to keep to a 2% budget deficit, as he has promised. Given the tricks a pro like Chaudhry can play with budgets, she doubts the March budget presentation will make things much clearer.

How About a Devaluation?

10. (C) Seeto says she gets calls from reporters "almost daily" asking about prospects for a devaluation of the Fiji dollar. A devaluation, she told us, would only be an act of last resort by the Reserve Bank, but could take place if reserve levels were to drop precipitously. Because Fiji is heavily import-dependent, a devaluation - with its resulting higher price for imports - would mean an immediate drop in the standard of living for most Fijians and would especially impact the poor. Seeto thinks the Finance Ministry would be willing to take far more drastic steps to reduce government spending rather than risk a devaluation. The ADB's Huang said he understands why the interim government and Reserve Bank oppose a devaluation, but he insisted that a devaluation is the only action that makes sense from a long-term perspective. With reserves this low and no prospect of an export or investment boom in the near future, a devaluation is the only way to achieve economic equilibrium.

Banking on Tourism is Premature

11 (C) As Seeto noted, any optimism about Fiji's economy stems from the widely-accepted notion that tourism is poised to bounce back. Members of Fiji's private sector Tourism Action Group (TAG), consisting of representatives from hotels, airlines, and tour companies, told the Ambassador February 22 that the interim government has unrealistic expectations about tourism. The next four months are likely to be "quite bad" they said, with many hotels showing occupancy rates in the 20-40% range. Many hotels with higher occupancy have relied on price cuts of 40% or more and are not making any money. Tourism operators are banking on improved occupancy and rates during the peak tourist season, May to October. TAG estimates that if tourism "returns to normal" by May, industry revenue will still be down FJ$120 million (about USD 75 million) from pre-coup projections. They emphasize that forecast is very optimistic - occupancy rates may go up, but rates may not return to pre-coup levels for a long time.

Moreover, several new hotels have opened in the last year, and more are scheduled to open in 2007, making the struggle to make a profit even harder. 12. (C) The TAG group complained that some government departments and a number of academics "have been working overtime churning out numbers" to show that tourism is recovering. If those academics were to plant their feet on the ground and look at things like a businessman, they'd realize things are not so rosy. The TAG members say they are worried that Chaudhry will view tourism as a "cash cow" he can tap into to fund government programs. They see possible new duties on "luxury" goods used in the tourism sector, new taxes on tourists, and additional income and corporate taxes. (Note: On February 13, Fiji's Department of Immigration proposed a new visa/permit fee it said could raise FJ$10 million per year. The interim cabinet has not made a decision on the proposed fee. End note.)

Dixon Seeto, Head of the Fiji Hotel Association and a TAG member, recounted how at a meeting with the interim government he commented that "to take the economy forward, it is not advisable to make everyone poor." He told us the reaction to the comment "by Chaudhry's socialist advisors" was distinctly negative.

Other Industries Worried Too

13. (C) Rajesh Punja, head of the food manufacturer and importer Punjas, also told us he is worried about interim government actions that could harm industry. Punja said various sources tell him that, with money tight and poverty levels rising, Chaudhry will cut import tariffs on food items to placate his main constituency, the poor. This will have the unintended consequence of crippling Fiji's fledgling food manufacturing industry. Punjas has a plan in place to adopt to the change - the company will focus almost exclusively on importing. But in the meantime hundreds of manufacturing jobs will be lost as will an important export industry for Fiji. Punjas sells food products manufactured in Fiji throughout the Pacific. Punja, who insists that he has always had a good relationship with Chaudhry, has asked for meetings with the interim Finance Minister, but has been repeatedly rebuffed.

Comment - A Coming Winter of Discontent?

14. (C) How the interim regime deals with the economy will have a major impact on levels of discontent in Fiji in the coming months and ultimately on the stability of the regime. The interim government inherited a difficult economic hand, exacerbated greatly by the after-effects of the coup. Chaudhry will try very hard to avoid taking steps that directly feed discontent, such as devaluing the Fiji dollar or increasing the VAT. The business community and the civil service have every reason to be concerned Chaudhry will look to them to make up for Fiji's financial shortfall.

Another source that will be increasingly tapped is the FNPF, Fiji's social security system. While Chaudhry may be able to mask Fiji's fundamental financial problems for a while, the regime will be able to live off bond proceeds, loans, and FNPF funds for only so long. Sooner or later, Fiji's average citizen will begin to feel the strong impact the coup has had on the economy. It is not clear at all how the interim government will cope when populist rhetoric confronts pocket book reality. DINGER

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HUMPTY DUMPTY: 'If history is any guide, it will be Richard Naidu.But let us wait and see who will lead the desired Coalition Party in 2022'