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MIND BOGGLING RESULT: FFP was perceptibly below 50% at the start, while SODELPA was easily above 40%. But by the end, the FFP had accelerated to 60% whilst SODELPA rapidly slid below 30%

18/9/2014

31 Comments

 
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"When will it be our turn to TASTE POWER?" -  Dictator Bainimarama's election win will encourage serving military officers to overthrow him - that is another unintended result for VOTING for him and his Fiji First (Theft) Party - so Coup Culture
will continue in Fiji!

FijiFirst Party has replaced old parties to become an Indo-Fijian party - for 90% of them voted for Bainimarama and Khaiyum's party; - RACE is a fact of life in Fiji ' - The late Ratu Sir Kamisese Mara


"Such large swings themselves are not unheard of in genuinely fair votes. But the way the voting percentages changed - i.e. they continued at a constant clip towards those marks around or from the middle third of the vote count, is odd from a statistical point of view. If the count was truly a "closed system" that is. In other words, if the vote outcome was truly "set in stone" at the end of the voting day, and before the counting started, the initial percentages should have started off much nearer to the final outcomes."
"The voting patterns were also highly discordant with FFP’s candidate-fielding experience. Just a couple of weeks before nominations closed, Bainimarama had to order his Cabinet and his district officers to stand for FFP. The clear implication is that they had not attracted any (or enough) high quality candidates from their public canvassing process, themselves. So to go from struggling to even field competent candidates, to “romping in” an election victory with 60% of the public vote, is a huge turnaround in fortunes which is very difficult to explain. Especially when considered in the light of the “odd” changes in voting percentages over the counting stages. And double-especially when only a relatively small crowd is celebrating the win at the FFP “victory tent”. I tell you, if my party won, I would absolutely have taken some time off work to at least go down and visit them."
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PITCHING TENT IN ALBERT PARK: Khaiyum had put up tent in the park long before the results were announced - was he privy to election result?
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BY VICTOR LAL
Fijileaks Opinion Columnist


1. The Voter Turnout Percentage (2014 election) is unusual because no party paid transport buses were allowed on polling day. If you have massive free public transport efforts put in by many different parties over a week, and compare that to a One-Day Vote where people have to get themselves to their nearest polling station, then its very hard to believe that the 2nd could produce a better turnout than the first.

2. The changing vote percentages throughout the vote count were also unusual. Not the fact that they changed. It was the way they changed.

Normally any vote - particularly a one-day vote inside a 3-day campaigning blackout - will just be a "snap-shot" of the "Will of the People". In other words, the result of the vote is "set" at the end of the voting period, but it is just not known yet. What makes that result known is of course the final count.

However before that final figure arrives, the progressive count will give some approximation of what the final result will be. That is why many good pollsters can accurately predict a final election result after just 5% of the vote count is known. Because you should be able to see the trends, and then just accurately extrapolate those over the whole vote. Which is what they do. This happens all over the democratic world because statistical principles work all over the entire world.

Most importantly, these principles work because they function in the "closed system" of the end of the vote. In other words, whatever influences that existed at the time of the vote or campaign blackout, are set in stone by the time the vote starts. So they can be "detected" early in the vote count, as well as late in it.

Together, the "closed influences" and the statistical trends mean that the initial count trends will approach the final count results, as a "decelerating" asymptote. Or as a decreasing oscillation. Around or towards the final vote percentage figure, I mean.

So in statistical practice, if one party say got 55% of the vote as its "set" result", that might show up as 49% or 60% in the early polling. But that initial figure will "refine" itself towards, or approach, the "set" result as the count proceeds, in a decelerating "curve". And because statistical forecasting techniques will be in an environment of "closed voting influences", that will allow pollsters to accurately predict past those early approximation "errors", to confidently estimate the final figure.

The key point being as the count proceeds, it becomes more precise. In other words, it becomes a more accurate reflection of the "final result". Which is why the progressive voting percentage behaves like a "decelerating asymptote", or a decreasing oscillation. Because it too, is "getting more accurate". And as it does, the changes in the percentage get smaller because of that increasing accuracy.

So whilst a winning party can be expected to “pull away” from the others in terms of total votes, that will not happen with their voting percentage, which will become increasingly stable and predictable as the count proceeds.

Consider this in the light of the Fiji Election vote count where it seems like the votes for the respective parties appeared to "accelerate" away from their initial polling percentages.

FFP was perceptibly below 50% at the start, while SODELPA was easily above 40%. But by the end, FFP had accelerated to 60% whilst SODELPA accelerated downwards below 30%.

Such large swings themselves are not unheard of in genuinely fair votes. But the way the voting percentages changed - i.e. they continued at a constant clip towards those marks around or from the middle third of the vote count, is odd from a statistical point of view. If the count was truly a "closed system" that is.

In other words, if the vote outcome was truly "set in stone" at the end of the voting day, and before the counting started, the initial percentages should have started off much nearer to the final outcomes. And the statistical approach to those outcomes as the count proceeded, should have been decelerating. Not continually increasing at a constant rate through the last 2/3rds of the count.

This suggests that the system was not closed, and that “new influences” were being introduced into it which did not allow the voting percentages to stabilise. It would be interesting to see if the same “voting percentage instability” pattern held with the smaller parties vote counts, too. Although I cannot state from memory if it did. 

Of course, shift in voting percentages could all come down to the rural-urban shift in the voting count from the pre-polling and postal votes, over to the urban centres. But SODELPA was stronger in the urban areas as that is where they concentrated their pocket meeting campaigning. So their apparent drop in support in the urban count was counter-intuitive. Unless it could be explained by all the soldiers marching around Fiji in full uniform on the weekend before the vote.

3. These voting patterns were also highly odd in terms of the party campaigning experience on the ground - at least in the Lami area. Towards the end of the campaign period, FFP could barely get anyone to even attend their pocket meetings in and around Lami. And when they (FFP) had their big campaign meetings in Suva and Nausori, they had to do it as part of a “Family Fun Day” outreach with plenty of free giveaways to attract attendance. Even then, they didn’t get notably more attendants than SODELPA's purely political “big gatherings”.

4. In previous elections, we always had voter exit polls from which to gauge our party performance on election day. And more importantly, to be able to compare with the final vote counts when these came out. Exit polls were not available this time because of regime election decree rules. So the next best thing is just straw polls from peoples’ personal experiences. As one analyst put it: "I have never been part of an election previously where nobody I knew personally was going to vote for a party, and that party did well. Even in the past, although I thought my party was going to do well, I still personally knew people who I knew were going to vote for one of our opponents. This is the first time ever in my experience where nobody I knew personally was going to vote for the eventual winner, whilst almost everyone I don’t know must have voted for them. Surreal much."

5. The voting patterns were also highly discordant with FFP’s candidate-fielding experience. Just a couple of weeks before nominations closed, Bainimarama had to order his Cabinet and his district officers to stand for FFP. The clear implication is that they had not attracted any (or enough) high quality candidates from their public canvassing process, themselves. So to go from struggling to even field competent candidates, to “romping in” an election victory with 60% of the public vote, is a huge turnaround in fortunes which is very difficult to explain. Especially when considered in the light of the “odd” changes in voting percentages over the counting stages. And double-especially when only a relatively small crowd is celebrating the win at the FFP “victory tent”. I tell you, if my party won, I would absolutely have taken some time off work to at least go down and visit them.

6. By some counts, voter turnout yesterday was 97%+. By other counts, there were actually more ballots counted than registered voters.

Obviously the 2nd scenario is a big problem. But even the first is not without issues. The first of which is that all around the world in democratic experience, high turnouts have always been associated with either: 1. A close race, or 2. A big vote for "Change" (as in, change of government).

Fiji must be a very special case though, because our big turnout produced neither of those two.

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FFP's general secretary Aiyaz Khaiyum was so desperate for Indo-Fijian candidates that he endorsed the application of Ba lawyer Ashneel Sudhakar who was exposed posting materials of explicit sexual nature on his Facebook. Sudhakar was later seen celebrating the FFP 'win' at the tent in Albert Park

'We will not accept the outcome of these general elections based on the evidence available which points to a co-ordinated and systematic effort to defraud the citizens of Fiji of a free and fair election.'

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31 Comments
credible election link
18/9/2014 01:08:39 am

The MOG has already announced the 2014 Fiji Elections was "credible". Anyone surprised by that? That's why they were brought over: to give the elections their stamp of approval. I am sure they were just waiting to make that announcement at the first opportunity. Now they can all go back home and give their tired observer eyes a good rest.
And Chaudhry and anyone else who wants to raise "serious" concerns regarding the conduct of the elections with MOG must know it will be furtile. Their job is already done.

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unique alright link
18/9/2014 01:23:06 am

Of course fiji is a unique case. the dictatorship in Fiji organized the "democratic" elections. now you take your cue from that!
after 8 years of no elections and rule by unelected power grabbers, the first "democratic" elections was organised by the same power grabbers.
no Fiji did not have a free and fair democratic election. it had an election farce!

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Tomasi
18/9/2014 01:34:50 am

Editor, Victor actually expressed what some of us had been talking about over the last 18 hours since the votes were being counted. It is very odd to see Voreqe's votes galloping off into the sunrise while the others seemed to stagnate and wobble at a very funny pace.

Fiji is a relatively small place with less than a million population and even less registered voters. Add the fact that we are close relatives and closely associated and we tend to gauge people's intentions quite accurately compared to larger nations who are very widely scattered and isolated.

I do not think anyone could have predicted or expected the current results as 'normal or accurate' expressions of people's political views and interests. So I tend to agree with Victor that some rather unusual factor or influence must be at play here during the counting process.

Victor, have you heard of the ballot boxes stored at the King's Wharf. Someone also mentioned about ballot boxes transported in from Indonesia on the day of polling, yesterday, Wed 17/Sept. Please let us investigate and explore that further as one of the possible explanations to the extraordinary/odd results we are witnessing here in Fiji. Surely, Voreqe's party name is living up to itself. They have created many firsts in Fiji. First Dictator, First Murderer and Thief and Liar to become PM, first Constitution that provides immunity to the dictators, then the First Extraordinary Rigging of our National Elections. Who knows what other firsts they have up their sleeves? We need to stand united people and be stronger and wiser than we have ever been. They have gotten more bolder each time.

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NRiff
18/9/2014 06:55:51 am

I think you are lying here. Check Ilaitia Vuniyayawa - 297 - he got over 4000 Votes !!! for a relative unknown - this is no doubt a spillover from Frank - where some people were confused with the numbers.

Got to hand it to Frank - wherever he went, all walks of people wanted to be with him, to see him and to thank him.

You are only a handful of people - a "sour grapes" phenomenon.

Let it go and look to the future - rather than finding fault in everything.

Anywhere you go in Fiji, EVERYONE LOVES AND RESPECTS FRANK for his accessibility and candidness - and transparency.

We welcome Fiji together into a new era of prosperity for all Fijians...

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Respect?
18/9/2014 07:21:23 am

Yes, people are amused by this Clown. But respect is a bit over-stated.

Traitors
18/9/2014 02:58:37 am

When people will support another party then FLP, Chaudhry would call them traitors... "Kom ke Gaddaar".

Now Kom Ke Gaddaar is crying fowl, but rightfully so just as he has demonstrated unwillingliness to give the $2million stacked away to refugees, same as that the Aiaz camp are unwilling to give away power.

What were you thinking Chaudhry when you were the one that through peoples charter called for One Man One Vote and then went on to say even if FLP looses out you did not care.

So why care now for the corrupt seeds you sowed and seeing its fruits are enjoyed by someone even smarter than you?

This is what corruption does when you try to bastarise a living constitution without any mandate of the people.

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Brian
18/9/2014 03:07:35 am

Thank you for this article. I was pondering this very issue myself this morning having monitored many election counts over the years I did find it very strange how rather suddenly, at about the 10% of votes counted mark, that the percentages seemed to change significantly.

Of course you could say it was certain Ballot boxes, but as the article points out, 5% of a count is usually enough to determine which way the vote will go unless it is very close. At 5% of the count there were only a couple of percentage points in it and the FFP were polling less than 50% of the total vote. Certainly this must have been cause for concern to the incumbents.

Also at the time the FFP vote started to gallop and the SODELPA vote wobble, one Aiyaz Said Khayum also saw a dramatic increase in support. His personal numbers looked very shaky early, well down even within his own party. Miraculously he managed a top 3 finish overall.

It does look very suspicious but you know what? In the world we live in, the orchestrators of this will be simply congratulated on their cleverness. ASY has had his ultimate victory, an internationally recognised complete endorsement of the new Constitution and his decrees that will leave Fiji in a precarious position for years to come, all under the guise of 'stability'.

All we can hope for now is that these gentlemen actually deliver and better Fiji for the future generations.

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nrif
18/9/2014 06:59:13 am

The constitution is a fantastic document for all people of Fiji - and for other countries as well - this is the beginning of a new era for the people of Fiji - and I salute Frank Bainimarama to have the courage to take Fiji forward from the dark days since 1987...

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Watta?
18/9/2014 07:17:45 am

The 2013 Constitution suffers from a crisis of LEGITIMACY! The only moral and rationale for that document is for the immunity - for who needs immunity other than the criminals....

wtf
18/9/2014 04:01:43 am

Guys.....all is well. We still in Fiji, no guns, no problems but those instigating problems are the losing parties and the unwanted Chaudary.....keep the hell away

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wtf2u2
18/9/2014 07:33:19 am

Look Mate, Chaudhary is very concerned about his over-all pathetic performance, as the worst-off of all political parties. He is very concerned about his reputation back home in Hariana and you are rubbing salt in the wound saying he is a Loser. Never!

Chaudhary can't believe his new 'low-down' status - so can't we.

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Slash Funds
18/9/2014 08:01:02 am

Yes, Hariana Indians should send Chaudhary some more 'slash-cash' so Chaudhary-ji can really RETIRE with his son in Australia - this time for real ji.

The RIGGED elections
18/9/2014 04:04:37 am

The FIJICHOR Party has behaved accordingly.

The accusations contained within the ‘Joint Statement’ of ALL political parties are quite serious and significant. It cannot be IGNORED!

There has never been any doubt about the ability of Bainimarama / Aiyaz (since both are proven CHORS) to RIG this elections.

The ONLY way for these CHORS to WIN is to RIG.

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the way of the thug ruler link
18/9/2014 04:58:52 am

really, there is no need to labour the point that the election was a fraud perpetrated on the people of Fiji. what else did one expect from the thug rulers of Fiji?

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fixed match link
18/9/2014 05:06:12 am

what Chaudhry and company complaining about ? how can there be no free and fair elections when election commissioner larry thomas said before the elections that this will be the freest and fairest elections Fiji has ever had.larry thomas is an honourable man. just like khaiyum, bainimarama and tom racket. all, all honourable men.

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yep link
18/9/2014 05:10:00 am

Quiz Time.
Q : Was the 2014 Fiji Elections rigged?
A : Yep.

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RiG RiG
18/9/2014 05:10:27 am

Sala CHORS!

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HeSaid:
18/9/2014 05:57:48 am

"I will WIN all 50 Seats"

What has happened since? Has he changed his mind? Why give concessions? Would outright RIGGING have been too obvious?


Laughable Lot - Have you SEEN your cartoons?

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Fiji First Party (Original)
18/9/2014 06:08:18 am

Just their Cockiness and Arrogance proves they had it all sassed!

Bainimarama and Aiyaz started this elections with a shameless 'intellectual property theft' - CHORI. They STOLE the Fiji First Party Name.

What should start with a CHORI logically concludes with a CHORI.

So what is so Surprising, Fiji ??
What is So SURPRISING?

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On Coup Culture and Power Tasting...
18/9/2014 08:13:16 am


“Your Excellency,…Protecting the people’s 1997 Constitution, is indeed, the paramount of the tasks of the peoples’ President.
Otherwise, Sir, what delusional logic of law, morality and truth are we going to bequeath our next generation? What historical legacy would the next generation inherit as far as the notion of respecting one’s Constitution goes? Wise are those who learn from their history!

Abrogating the 2013 Constitution would not only be a challenge to another trigger-happy future adventurer – but a ‘legitimate’ means to self-enrichment.”

[Extract Fiji First Party – Submissions to the President -30th January 2013]

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Slow
18/9/2014 10:38:01 am

So who has WON? Why has the counting stopped ?

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Self-Evident - but questions
18/9/2014 12:30:00 pm

When the Election Date (election day holiday) was announced and the writ of Elections issued for the 17th of September 2014 then why or what were these PRE-POLLING? Major Anomaly ?

Who Monitored (independent observers / party scrutineers ) these 'pre-polling'?

Where was all the 'pre-polling' ballot boxes stored?

What was the reason for these 'pre-polling'?

How many voters were 'pre-polled'?

How many more DHL Drivers behaved similarly to the one caught and charged? Was there any investigation done along this line?

What are we going to do NOW?

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Saying It Since 2012.
18/9/2014 01:16:34 pm

"13.4 The Electronic Voter System."

" The Regime has proposed the introduction and use of Electronic Voting System (EVS) in 2014 elections. Recently (2010), in Ireland EVS machines worth tens of millions of Euros were bought but never used precisely ‘because there was no possible way to know that these machines calculate the results correctly’ [http://www: evoting.cs.may.ie.].

The people of Fiji need to be assured that any introduced system meets the certified international standards criteria and those electoral processes and systems are as transparent as crystal and observed by neutral international parties. There should be zero chance of the present regime rigging the elections."

[Extract: Fiji First Party - Submissions to Ghai CRC., 30th September, 2012].

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joint statement link
18/9/2014 02:39:09 pm

the leaders of the democratic opposition parties have now come together to speak with one voice and sign a joint statement of protest AFTER the elections. THAT is what they should have done BEFORE the elections , to come together to fight the elections on a united democratic front to get rid of the thug rulers. BUT they did not do that. they could not rise above their petty parochial party interest. They failed the people of Fiji. They should have known BEFORE the elections that there was no way the mob in power was going to allow a truly free and fair elections in Fiji. They had TOO MUCH at stake to let that happen. Hence they did not relinguish power to allow a care taker administration to conduct the elections. They stayed put to ensure they could fix things to return themselves to power under a democratic subterfuge. They have succeeded in their Machiavellian scheme. I doubt very much any joint statement will now succeed in turning things around. The MOG will do the polite thing and receive the complaints and then ignore it but pretend to go through the motion of giving it careful consideration. It's a bit like the protest appeal against the result in a soccer match. The appeal is accepted - usually with an exorbitant fee - then a committee sits to deliberate and declares the original result to be fair.

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So Sad...
19/9/2014 01:13:18 am

You are so correct. A part of me wants to believe you and part of me resists. The part of me - which is very sad because my party and family party has LOST - wants me to believe you.

But then there is another rational part of me which resists and refuses to believe that some people or party can be that nasty, greedy or evil. Nah,...No-one can STEAL the mandate of the People - that would be a very bad crime.

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the vote count link
18/9/2014 03:14:13 pm

I hear what Victor Lal your guest opinion writer is saying about the authenticity of the vote count and all that. He apparently has serious doubts about it.
My own take is that Bainimarama and his butako party did get the overwhelming vote they got. The question is how did they get it?
They got it by massive vote buying that started well before the 2014 election was announced. They did what they had accused the Qarase government of doing. Only a whole lot worse. And, they made blatant use of State resources to canvass support for the Bainimarama regime.

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SHIPPING CONTAINER
18/9/2014 03:51:00 pm

How come there are sealed polling containers pails in the shipping container looking like they are having ballot papers in them?

Why was this secret location for storage of ballot containers used and no physical movement of them being seen otherwise?

Why was the shipping containers not stored in the counting stations in Suva, but at the wharf instead. You can see the ballot boxes were stacked 3 tier high but have fallen over due to container movement. Therefore these had been sitting there for some time.

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And link
18/9/2014 04:43:39 pm

While the leadership in the democratic opposition parties were busy pettifogging the leadership in the dictatorship was busy mega rigging!!

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tualeita
18/9/2014 05:30:28 pm

1.
Refusal by the illegal regime to hand over power to a caretaker government at least two weeks before the election.

2.
Appointment of Khaiyum to be Minister of Elections when he himself was a candidate.

3.
Changing the rules of the game by illegal decrees when we were in the middle of it.

The three things above made me suspicious that "something's rotten in the state of Denmark".

Have all the count's been completed and confirmed yet, three weeks after the election which was supposed to have happened in only one day?

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Questions Remain, Agatha
19/9/2014 12:45:20 am

At what precise point in time did the 'scales' tipped - i.e. the moment of accelerating in the favor of FFP and downward slide for SODELPA?

Which Ballot Box count tipped the Scales?

Can we have a Recount / and Analysis of that Box alone ? Where was this Box from? Which Polling Station?

Only ONE or TWO boxes had tipped the Scales - and then the rest followed maintaining the usual 'significant difference' pattern between the two main parties.

The idea is to identify these ONE/TWO Boxes very quickly - These are your 'stuffed' ballots.

Case resolved - Rigged Elections.

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free and fair
19/9/2014 03:31:48 am

The photos of ballot container are taken in vodafone arena> look properly the entry area and trees around that school which is near that. people do some photo study and do not get carried away.

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